In-depth analysis
1. Impact of the Jump Trading lawsuit (bearish trend)
Overview: On December 21, the judicial administrator of Terraform Labs filed a lawsuit against Jump Trading, claiming $4 billion for market manipulation during the collapse of Terra in 2022. This case revives concerns about systemic risks associated with LUNA.
Consequences: This lawsuit introduces new uncertainty for LUNA holders, as Jump's alleged role in the collapse of Terra could prolong regulatory scrutiny. Investors may already be anticipating selling pressure related to the unlocking of tokens in the context of this litigation or damage to the company's reputation.
Key indicator to watch: Evolution of the case in front of the Illinois district court (1:25-cv-07511).
2. Technical weakness (bearish)
Overview: LUNA has broken below its 7-day simple moving average ($0.1178) and its 200-day simple moving average ($0.1346), while the RSI (49.69) indicates neutral to bearish momentum. The MACD histogram (-0.006) confirms selling pressure.
In summary: the loss of the pivot point of $0.115 (December 22) triggered stop-loss orders, exacerbating the decline. The Fibonacci retracement indicates the next support at $0.1045 (78.6% level), but a close below $0.10 could lead to a new test of the 2025 lows.
3. Altcoin liquidation spiral (Mixed)
Overview: LUNA's 24-hour trading volume dropped by 14% to $126 million, while the market's fear/greed index reached 29 ('Fear'). Bitcoin's dominance rose to 59.06%, depriving other cryptocurrencies of capital.
In summary: LUNA's high beta (-22.74% for the week compared to -1.09% for the overall market) makes it vulnerable to a widespread deleveraging in the sector. However, the upcoming launch of the LUNA/USDC pair on Binance (on December 24) could stabilize liquidity.
Conclusion
The decline in LUNA's trading volume reflects the legal uncertainties related to the Jump case and technical issues.
Key point to watch: Can LUNA defend its 30-day simple moving average ($0.1093) to maintain its monthly gain of +55%?$LUNA
