$FF #FalconFinance @Falcon Finance
The cryptocurrency market is always an endless stream of expectations and realities, and in the role of a holder through the cycle, we continuously seek signals regarding the self-sustainability of an ecosystem. With FF, current on-chain data paints a volatile market picture, where price adjustments are occurring alongside evident selling pressure. However, the true self-sustainability of this ecosystem will be determined by how the market reacts to the existing capital flows and whether it can create a solid foundation for sustainable growth in the future, reflected through liquidity and trading sentiment indicators. This is a crucial phase, where the signals embedded in raw data will help us position strategies objectively and strategically.
Observing price behavior in recent days, FF has undergone a significant adjustment phase, from around 0.115 USD down to 0.09383 USD. This shift, combined with the 24h trading volume at 5.54 million USD, indicates that the market is in the process of reshaping value. Particularly important is the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for both the derivatives market (perpetuals) and the spot market, which both show a continuous decline, at -12.938 million USD and -14.167 million USD respectively. CVD is an essential on-chain indicator, measuring the cumulative difference between actual buying and selling volumes in the market, informing us which side is more proactive in placing market orders. The continuous sharp decrease in CVD and its maintenance at deep negative levels clearly indicates that selling pressure is dominating, not only from speculative positions but also from spot trading activities. This poses a significant challenge in attracting new capital flows and generating organic growth momentum for the ecosystem. A self-sustaining ecosystem needs a cash flow coming in from those who believe in the core value, rather than just purely speculative movements. The absence of proactive buying cash flow in the spot market suggests that the community may be lacking strong motivation to accumulate, which needs to be closely monitored to assess the underlying health.
However, the picture is not entirely one color. Open Interest (OI) – the total value of all open derivative contracts (buy or sell) that have not been closed – remains surprisingly high, around 188 million USD, even as prices have undergone adjustments. The fact that OI has not significantly decreased indicates that capital flow is still being maintained in FF's derivatives market. This can be interpreted as significant participation from traders, regardless of which direction they are betting on. A high OI in the context of falling prices may imply that many new short positions are being opened, or that long positions are still persistently holding on, creating a tense situation between factions. For a holder through the cycle, this is an important signal: the market is not "numb
