Back to the market, I've already seen someone daring to call Bitcoin to 100K this week. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is around 93K, and the technicals have clearly shown the ceiling; yet you insist it can be pulled straight to 100K.

At this stage, there is a huge divergence between bulls and bears. It's not that a trend is coming; it's that emotions are pulling, and no one is comfortable. In the coming days, information such as the Japanese meeting minutes, signals from Chuanzi, and CPI will be on the table, any of which could lead to a sell-off.

As for this week's Christmas market, don't expect too much. Volume is declining, and liquidity is decreasing, which means the market is more easily manipulated. If under the so-called seasonal benefits, emotional vacuum, and gradually recovering liquidity, the market still can't move, there can only be one explanation: high interest rates have pressed the American economy to the ground.

$BTC The weekly structure has tested above 80K four times repeatedly; there is support, but don't think this is a solid bottom. Even if it rebounds to 100K, it will still drop below 80.6K and wander around in the 70s.

This round, from 15K to 126.2K, has completely ended; now we are in a rebound phase within a down cycle. On the daily chart, if it doesn't break 84.4K, we can consider it a rebound starting point, while 89.5K is a hard resistance; whether it can surpass depends entirely on the main force. Even if it surpasses, 94K is also a wall, not the endpoint.

Currently, the weekly chart resembles the sideways movement of early 2022, with three lower shadows indicating that the dip buyers are still in play. However, the low MACD golden cross only represents a reduction in selling pressure; it does not indicate a return of the bull. History has played out once already, rebounding to Fibonacci 0.618, and then a misstep.

Following this script, the current wave of fluctuations will likely grind until mid to late January next year, with the rebound peak probably around 98K. If we truly reach that position, not aggressively shorting Bitcoin would be disrespectful to my wallet.

$ETH As for Ethereum, it has been manipulated too obviously recently. I still see the critical level at 3000; if it holds, it will go to 3160; if it doesn't hold, it will directly slide into the vacuum zone below 2940, and basically no one will catch it before 2775.

December's positive closing is not strong; it is preparing for further declines in January. Four consecutive months of decline have indeed provided some imagination for a rebound in February, but the premise is to first clean up the bubbles. If it doesn't break 2600, there won't be any decent rebound.