Let's talk again about the rebound target for Bitcoin

If we say that Wave A has already ended and we are currently in Wave B's rebound, then there are two methods to determine the rebound target.

One method is to use the retracement level from wave theory. The target for Wave B will be near the 0.5 retracement level of Wave A, approximately around 100,000.

Another method is to use moving average analysis. The target for Wave B will be near the annual average line, and it will not effectively break through the annual average line; however, the position of the annual average line is continuously moving downward, averaging a decrease of about 1,000 per month. Currently, the annual line is at 102,000, and if Wave B rebounds to the target next month, then the target might be around 101,000.

However, at the moment, the probability that Wave A has already ended is relatively small. In the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022, Wave A lasted at least two and a half months, while the previous drop from 126,200 to 80,600 only lasted one and a half months, which is too short.