Last night, BTC played the old script of 'the US stock market surged at the opening and crashed in the middle of the night' again. While others are enjoying the Christmas rally, the crypto market is lying still. $90,000 feels like an iron ceiling, getting shot down every time it tries to rise. This market doesn't feel right!
News: Doves are easing + big whales are stepping back, it's all cold winds.
The Fed's 'hardcore dove' Milan is starting to falter.
Yesterday, Fed Governor Milan said he hasn't decided whether to support a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points, but in the future, he will 'oppose a 50 basis point cut less.' This statement sounds like the doves are losing confidence, and the market's expectations for significant rate cuts next year may be discounted—liquidity expectations are cooling, which is an invisible negative for risk assets, especially BTC.
Grayscale has paused its BTC holdings, with cash reserves soaring to 2.19 billion USD.
Last week, Grayscale stopped buying Bitcoin and instead hoarded nearly 2.2 billion USD in cash. What does this indicate? Even the most stubborn institutions are choosing to watch on the sidelines at high levels and may even be preparing to dump. They still hold 670,000 BTC, with a market value exceeding 60 billion USD; once they turn, the market pressure can be imagined.
Lord's view: The macro and institutional levels are conveying 'caution' or even 'bearish' signals. Liquidity expectations are weakening + whales have stopped buying, leaving BTC lacking the fuel for upward breakthroughs. If you are unclear about specific points, you can follow the lord for real-time reminders from friends who have paid attention to me in the past 24 hours.
Technical aspect: 90000 is the dividing line of strength and weakness, and the 4-hour chart shows signs of fatigue.
Key position: 90000 USD has become the life and death line for bulls and bears. Multiple attempts to attack last night were repelled, indicating heavy selling pressure.
Indicator signal: BOLL channel: The price is running below the middle track, with the upper track forming resistance.
RSI: The 6-period RSI is around 42, not yet oversold, but has left the strong zone, indicating insufficient momentum.
Trading volume: Decreased during rallies and increased during declines, typical of a 'unable to rise, able to drop' structure.
Lord's view: The 4-hour level presents a weak oscillation structure of 'highs gradually declining, key levels being hard to break'. If it breaks down 84000 with volume, the downward space may further open up.
Personal opinion: BTC has not yet exited the 'Christmas lull period'. Institutions have stopped increasing holdings, and the Federal Reserve has slowed down on interest rate cuts, which are all short-term bearish. On a technical level, if it cannot break past 90000, it will continue to oscillate or even retrace. It is recommended to continue focusing on short positions; if it truly stabilizes above 90000 with volume, it would not be too late to consider switching to long. The key support below is in the 82000-82600 range; if it breaks down, it may accelerate downwards.
If you are not holding 5 million, please follow the lord's real-time suggestions to avoid liquidation risks. The current market is unpredictable, and each villager's position is different; please continuously update the entry points released by the lord in the village!
The market always has opportunities; the key is to operate calmly. The lord will continue to help everyone monitor on-chain dynamics and move forward steadily together! Follow the lord and participate in every attack by the lord's villagers! The lord will announce specific entry times and real-time news every day in the village!
