In the past, projects gradually increased in value, but now they have sky-high valuations as soon as they go live.
There is too much money in VC now, with rounds of financing pushing valuations to particularly high levels. By the time they go live, the market value is usually locked in at a very high position.
$ARB At that time, I also looked at it, with a market value of over 20 billion as soon as it went live. However, less than 10% is circulating, and there isn't much of the actual coin that can be traded. This kind of high FDV with low circulation means retail investors are basically left holding the bag.
The logic for new coins going live has changed now. Previously it was driven by technology; now it is driven by capital. VCs need to exit, so the valuation must be high. As long as someone is willing to pay, it’s fine.
I believe this trend won’t change in the short term. Unless a bear market comes, and VCs can’t raise money, only then will the valuations of new projects return to a reasonable range. In this environment, a market value of tens of billions is indeed the new normal.
Projects like FF are really typical "fundamental narrative" tactics. What institutions support, integration of RWA, sounds very impressive, but the market simply does not buy it.
When prices drop, they still talk about strong fundamentals: isn't this the standard "value investing" rhetoric? What fundamentals are there in the crypto space? There is only capital flow and sentiment. If institutional support were really effective, why is the price still falling?
The community discusses long-term utility and liquidity solutions, but to put it bluntly, they are just looking for excuses for current performance. Truly valuable projects will be voted on with feet by the market. At this stage, who still has the patience to listen to your long-term stories?
High volatility is actually a sign of unstable chips; either the big players are washing out positions, or really no one wants it anymore. The concept of RWA has been hyped for so long; how many have actually materialized? Most are still just drawing up plans.
