I am Qi He. Tonight, as I watch the market, I dare not blink; the news and technical analysis are at odds!
News aspect:
Federal Reserve Governor Milan has personally admitted that recent inflation data has been 'distorted', with significant 'upward bias'. What does this mean? In simpler terms: The interest rate hike is being tightened too much and may need to be eased, leading to increased expectations for rate cuts! Normally, this would be great news, liquidity is about to flow, and the cryptocurrency market should rise, right?
Technical analysis: The 4-hour candlestick chart is getting complicated.
The MACD's white and yellow lines have indeed crossed above the 0 axis, which is an undeniable bullish signal. But what about the price? It is firmly pressed below the two high-pressure levels of 94634 and 94000, making upward movement seem very hesitant. Below, 90000 is a solid support, while 87000 is a stronger defense.
The contradiction lies here: Good news has arrived, yet the market rises 'awkwardly'.
What should players do now? Remember Qi He's three phrases:
Don't chase highs: If the market rapidly rises near 94000, that's not a charge signal, it's the main players' 'cash-out invitation'. Do not get carried away and chase.
Watch the key levels: Shift your focus from 'how high can it go' to 'can 90000 hold'. If it breaks down and cannot recover, short-term long positions must exit.
Wait for clear signals: Either stabilize above 95000 with volume, and we go long; or break down below 89000 with volume, and we go short.
Qi He's personal opinion:
I believe the main players won't let retail investors ride the wave so comfortably. They are likely to use this 'dovish good news' to play a game of 'false breakthrough and real washout'!
After tonight's market, my projection is:
First entice the bulls, then kill the dip: In the short term, market sentiment will be ignited by news, potentially leading to a rapid surge, even faking a stab at the 94000 resistance level, making all bullish participants rejoice and enter the market.
The key is 90000: When everyone thinks a breakthrough is imminent, a brutal sell-off may arrive in an instant. The real test is this critical level of 90000. If it breaks down with volume and stabilizes below, the next step is to test the strong support at 87000.
Tonight, I will be in Qi He Village, closely monitoring this critical signal, and providing real-time alerts. If you don't want to become the chives under the main players' knives, and if you are tired of being misled by news, pay attention to Qi He. We not only see through K-lines but also understand people's hearts.$BTC #加密市场观察
