When the direction of the tide changes, some are still arguing over the waves at the shore, while the giant ship has quietly changed its course.
In the past two years, when the gold price was still hovering below $4000, I have predicted more than once: in 2027-2028, the target for the gold price is $7000-$8000 per ounce. Initially, this target was considered 'too crazy.'
But just today, December 23, 2025, a historic scene unfolded: the international spot gold price broke through $4400 per ounce, and the spot silver stood at $69 per ounce, both setting new historical records.
Everything is accelerating into range. This is not just a breakthrough in price, but an ancient signal - the global credit system centered around the US dollar is undergoing an unprecedented structural examination.
01 Breaking new highs, the triple forces behind the gold super cycle.
"This is no longer a single hedge or anti-inflation trend," interpreted by a seasoned market analyst.
This round of epic rises in gold and silver is the result of the rare synchronous resonance of three macro forces: loose monetary policy, high fiscal deficits, and the global manufacturing recovery. Gold, metaphorically referred to as the 'thermometer of monetary credit', has its soaring core motivation stemming from the global re-pricing of sovereign credit and the acceleration of 'de-dollarization'.
Since 2025, gold has risen more than 60%, while silver has astonishingly outperformed gold with a more than 130% increase. Behind this is a fundamental shift in the global central bank purchasing model. They are no longer just allocating for diversification of reserves, but are hoarding gold for strategic 'survival' needs.
The physical gold that flows in the market is running dry, as oil capital from the Middle East and central banks from Asia are directly shipping gold bars back home after purchasing, no longer circulating.
02 Silver surges, not just the shadow of gold.
If the driving force of gold is 'hedging credit', then the surge of silver is a perfect storm of 'macro + industry + micro structure'.
I was bullish at $35 for silver, one of the core logics being the huge room for repair in the historical high 'gold-silver ratio'. Now, the ratio has significantly retreated from its high to about 65.
But the story of silver goes far beyond this. Its industrial properties, especially the deep binding with future industries such as AI, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles, have become the second-level rocket for price surges. Silver is a key material for TOPCon/heterojunction photovoltaic cells, high-performance connectors, and data centers, with industrial demand skyrocketing.
At the same time, the shift in Chinese policy is also crucial. Starting from January 1, 2026, silver will be controlled for export as a strategic material. This move is tantamount to dropping a shock bomb on an already tense global supply chain for silver, exacerbating expectations of structural shortages. Analysts predict that silver may have the opportunity to reach the $75 to $80 per ounce range next year.
03 The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, an irreversible long-term turning point.
The biggest single reason driving gold and silver bull markets is simple yet profound: the long-term value of the U.S. dollar is being systematically re-evaluated by the market.
The shift in Wall Street's attitude is a bellwether. Over the past year, the market's view on the dollar has shifted from indecisiveness to a highly consistent long-term bearish expectation. The logic chain is clear and heavy: whether to stimulate the economy or pay continuously rising interest, the continuous expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the significant issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds are almost an unsolvable problem.
Even if the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, a long-term U.S. Treasury yield of 4.8% remains a heavy shackles on the economy and finance. The focus of market trading has shifted from short-term interest rate policies to profound concerns about the long-term unsustainability of U.S. fiscal and debt. In this context, gold has become an 'alternative credit anchor', the ultimate policy against the long-term devaluation risk of fiat currency.
In this grand process of value re-evaluation, traditional finance and the crypto world have seen an unprecedented intersection. Decentralized stablecoins, represented by Decentralized USD, are trying to build a value exchange system on-chain that is not burdened by single sovereign debt, transparent, and based on over-collateralization. Its core innovation lies in introducing a 'price stability module', aiming to maintain value anchoring in a volatile market. This is seen as a technical supplement or even a counterbalance to the current fiat currency system and reflects the 'de-dollarization' mindset in the digital world, forming a wonderful resonance with physical gold.
04 RMB appreciation, the new narrative of the capital market.
The shift in the global currency landscape is not solely directed downward for the dollar. Another significant trend is forming: expectations of RMB depreciation dissipating, and the long-term appreciation logic becoming a new market consensus.
Against the backdrop of damaged U.S. dollar credit, the appeal of major non-U.S. currencies is relatively rising. Although the dollar index may rebound temporarily, RMB assets, relying on a massive economic scale, a sound recovery in fundamentals, and the irreplaceability as a global manufacturing center, are becoming an important destination for international funds seeking to diversify dollar risk. The central bank has clearly set 'maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level' as a core goal and holds over $3.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves as a 'ballast stone', providing a solid defense for the exchange rate.
From 'Made in China' to 'Chinese market', and then to 'Chinese assets', the depth and value of RMB assets are being rediscovered globally. From a ten-year perspective, the RMB to USD exchange rate rising to 6.0 has transformed from a fantasy into a strategic scenario seriously discussed by institutions. This is not just about exchange rates; it also signifies a comprehensive revaluation of core assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate priced in RMB. The next clear theme in the capital market may well be this journey of 'RMB value discovery'.
05 The future has arrived, how do we respond?
Gold rushing to $5,000 or silver challenging $80, these specific numbers are just the surface. The real transformation lies in the gradual and steady loosening of an international financial order that has been centered around a single sovereign currency for more than half a century. Central banks are voting with real gold and silver, while international capital is making choices with its feet.
As work may be redefined by AI and robots, and traditional value storage tools face a crisis of trust, the wealth logic of individuals and nations needs to be reshaped. Energy (whether fossil energy and metals in the physical world or computing power in the digital world) and value certificates independent of the old system (such as physical precious metals and decentralized digital assets) will become the cornerstones of the new era's wealth structure.
The market will not rise straight up. After reaching a historical high, gold and silver are facing the pressure of high-level fluctuations and profit-taking in the short term, which may lead to a technical correction. However, this cannot shake the core logic driving its long-term bull market. In the future, we may see gold trading widely in the range of $4,500 to $4,800, accumulating strength for a push towards $5,000 or even higher.
The ultimate outcome is not the collapse of the dollar, but rather the gradual formation of a new system that anchors multiple currencies, commodities, and digital values. Standing on the edge of this 'epochal fault', the dizziness comes from the failure of the old coordinates. The way to cope is to see clearly the direction of the deep currents and recalibrate your asset compass.
