Original title: (2025 Asset Review: In the Value Dislocation Between the AI Singularity and Entropy Increase, Why Bitcoin Will Significantly Underperform Gold and the US Stock Market)
Original author: XinGPT, Crypto KOL
Many people observing the performance of Bitcoin in 2025 fall into a simple price comparison, not understanding why it has underperformed compared to the US stock market led by Nvidia, and even underperformed traditional safe-haven asset gold.
If viewed from a high-dimensional perspective, this is actually a problem of physics and information theory. Price is just a surface phenomenon; the underlying energy flow and information density are the essence.
1. The crowding effect of energy arbitrage: the transfer of computing power hegemony
In Musk's logic, value is often tied to the efficiency of energy conversion. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has been the only machine capable of converting energy on a large scale into a digitally scarce asset, which is a thermodynamically based value anchoring.
But from 2024 to 2025, an extremely strong competitor emerged: generative artificial intelligence.
The core driving force of the US stock market is no longer fiat currency inflation, but the exponential explosion of total factor productivity (TFP) brought about by AI. When tech giants invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building data centers, they are essentially competing for global electricity quotas.
At the current stage, the economic added value generated by every kilowatt-hour of electricity used to train the next generation of large models or drive high-performance computing chips temporarily exceeds the returns from mining Bitcoin through hash collisions. The difference in marginal returns creates choices in prices and funding; just look at how many Bitcoin mining farms have turned into AI computing centers.
Capital is profit-seeking and sensitive. When the growth curve of silicon-based intelligence has a steeper slope than the scarcity curve of 'digital reserves', the global surplus liquidity will first flow to productivity assets with non-linear growth potential, rather than merely digital assets.
2. The 'atomic properties' of gold versus the 'code consensus' of Bitcoin
This year's strong performance of gold is essentially a result of the increase in global geopolitical entropy.
Faced with de-globalization and systemic uncertainty, sovereign-level players need an asset that does not require network connectivity and does not rely on any clearing system. Under this extreme system fault tolerance logic, ancient gold provides atomic-level certainty.
Although Bitcoin is hailed as digital gold, it still heavily relies on internet infrastructure and centralized liquidity channels. When the system faces physical disconnection risks, atomic-level determinism temporarily overcomes bit consensus, whereas physical gold can at least be held in hand or stored in a cave.
Gold hedges against systemic collapse, while Bitcoin is currently viewed more by the market as an overflow of system liquidity.
3. The 'volatility dampening' brought by ETFs
Tools determine behavior. The popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs marks the formal taming of this beast.
After Bitcoin enters traditional asset allocation portfolios, it begins to follow traditional financial risk control models. While this brings long-term funding support, it also greatly smooths its volatility, stifling its explosive potential.
Bitcoin now increasingly resembles a high beta technology index. With the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates longer than the market expected, this type of liquidity-sensitive 'long-tail asset' will naturally be suppressed.
4. The siphoning of the productivity singularity on the Bitcoin narrative
Charlie Munger emphasizes opportunity cost.
If holding a monopoly position AI leading company can achieve high certainty non-linear growth, then holding Bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow, has an extremely high opportunity cost.
2025 is one of the rare productivity singularity pre-nights in human history, with all funds chasing that node which may produce superintelligence. As a 'challenger to the monetary system', Bitcoin's appeal has been diluted in the face of the narrative of the productivity revolution.
5. Phase adjustment period in fractal structures
From the perspective of complex systems, the US stock market is in the parabolic acceleration phase driven by AI.
In fractal geometry, tiny structures constantly self-replicate and amplify through simple iterative formulas. AI plays this iterative operator role. From the underlying NVIDIA computing power to the mid-level cloud services, and up to the software applications, each layer replicates the logic of 'productivity explosion'. This structure is extremely magnificent but also means that the system is approaching the physical limits of this local dimension.
The performance of gold during the disintegration of the old order can be understood through the construction process of the Cantor Set, which involves continuously removing the middle third. In the current global financial fractal, what is being eliminated are 'credit expansion', 'unfulfilled promises', and 'high-entropy debt'.
As the old order is continuously shattered by debt crises and geopolitical turmoil, the last set of interconnected but unbreakable points is gold. This is a value density produced by 'subtraction', which is the most stable physical foundation in fractal structures.
The current state of Bitcoin is essentially the result of hedging different scales of power: the profit-taking pressure from early participants offsets the sustained purchases from sovereign nations and long-term funds over time, keeping the price compressed within a long-term low volatility range.
This long period of low volatility oscillation is dynamically referred to as the reconstruction of the 'attractor'.
This fractal system accumulates over time, reserving space for the next scale change.
Ultimately, Bitcoin in 2025 is not discredited but repriced. It temporarily cedes ground to the productivity singularity and geopolitical defense demands, bearing the cost of time rather than direction.
Only when the marginal efficiency of AI declines and liquidity continues to overflow will Bitcoin return to its true role as a cross-cycle liquidity value carrier.
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