I am Qi He. Tonight's SOL market is simply a psychological battle of 'known cards'. On one side, a certain whale has dumped 243 million USD, arrogantly opening short positions on BTC, ETH, and SOL; on the other side, our 4-hour chart is quite clear: the price is stable around 125.5, and the MACD white and yellow lines are firmly above the 0 axis, with a golden cross upwards. This is clearly a bullish trend!
So the question arises: is the whale's massive short position here to hand out money or to harvest? Will SOL break through the resistance level of 130 in one go tonight, or will it be smashed back to 123 or even 115 by this 'negative news'? Don't worry, let's peel it layer by layer and take a look.
News: Is the whale's short position really a 'big bomb'?
243 million dollars in short positions sounds terrifying. But Qihe tells you that in the cryptocurrency circle, especially in the futures market, a single action from a whale cannot simply be understood as 'he is bearish, so it will drop immediately.'
It could be a hedge: He may have spot or other long positions elsewhere, and opening a short position is just to lock in profits and manage risks.
It could be a 'smoke bomb': Using a large short position to create panic, driving down the price, making it easier for him to accumulate at lower positions or to cover shorts and go long. This has been seen many times in history.
The trap of consensus: When everyone sees a piece of news and thinks it's 'bearish,' the market often does not act logically. At this moment, the divergence between the chart and the news is the biggest suspense.
Technical aspect: The bulls have already 'drawn their swords.'
Trend: The overall 4-hour K-line is rising, with the price moving along the moving average.
Key levels: The first obstacle above is 130, and above that is 136. The key lifeline below is 123; if it falls below here, the short-term upward pattern may be broken, with deeper levels at 115.
Signal: The MACD has formed a golden cross above the 0 axis, which is a classic short-term bullish signal, indicating that the upward momentum is strengthening. There are also signs of increased trading volume, suggesting that capital is participating.
In simple terms, just looking at the chart, the market is voting with money, telling you: the upward trend is not over yet.
What should players do tonight?
Aggressive: You can try to go long with a small position near the current price, and strictly set the stop loss below 123. Remember, this is a short-term game, with a target of 130. Get in and out quickly, don't get attached.
Conservative: Two options. One is to wait for a breakout confirmation and consider entering after the price truly stabilizes above 130, though the cost is higher, but the certainty is stronger. The second is to wait for a pullback to buy low. If the price can stabilize at the key support area of 123-125, it will be a more ideal entry point for long positions.
Qihe's personal opinion: There is a high probability that we will 'touch' 130 dollars tonight, but it is more likely to play out a 'high and then retreat' scenario. Why are the actions of whales crucial? They are not retail investors; their actions often lead the market.
I am Qihe from the cryptocurrency circle. Follow me, and I'll teach you how to seize this market wave and catch the whole fish! If you don't know how to time your entry, Qihe will provide real-time analysis in the village and give the current best entry points. Follow Qihe to break down subsequent capital movements at the first time and seize every money-making window!#SOL #美联储降息预期升温 $SOL
