Last December, I was given a sweet deal, so why is there no accountability in January?
The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 19.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.1%. By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 44.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 47.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 8.2%.
In my view, the hawkish officials have already made it clear: at least until spring next year, don't expect me to adjust interest rates again. The Fed is most afraid of the market getting too excited. Lowering January expectations now is to prevent risk assets from rising too absurdly, which would lead to inflation making a comeback.
Since a rate cut in January is highly unlikely, the influx of liquidity in the market will not come immediately. This expectation of no rate cut will continue to bother $BTC near the 90,000 mark.
