Source: annual report OAK Research.
1) The most anticipated events in 2026.
- ICO and airdrop Playmarket, airdrop BASE, TGE OpenSea, launch of the MegaETH #MEGA mainnet, AAVE V4 #AAVE and mobile application (new version of the flagship DeFi lending), 3rd season Hyperliquid #HYPE (continuation of the rewards program), fee switch in favor of token holders #UNI (fee switch in Uniswap), appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve, inclusion of crypto-ETF in 401(k) retirement accounts, payments to Mt. Gox creditors (returning ~$9b in BTC).
2) Bitcoin - now it's a macro asset
- 2025 became a transition year: BTC closed the year roughly where it started.
- The 4-year cycle model has stopped working.
- The price of BTC depends on macroeconomics and ETFs, not on retail.
- BTC dominance > 60% has drained liquidity from altcoins.
3) ETFs and DAT companies - new demand (and threat)
- 200+ companies own >1,000,000 BTC (>5% of issuance).
- ETFs and DAT are the main channels for institutional investors.
- Risk: a contraction in the premium could collapse the sector.
4) Ethereum: the technology exists, but there is no price growth
- The technological progress of ETH does not lead to price growth.
- Transitioning to L2 has reduced fees and the burning of ETH, killing the narrative of ‘ultrasound money’.
- The Ethereum Foundation has undergone reorganization.
- The task for 2026 - to explain why to hold ETH.
5) Hyperliquid - the winner of the year and the symbol of ‘revenue meta’
- The main hero of 2025 in DeFi. $1b+ annual revenue, a team of 11 people. 99% of revenues for the buyback of #HYPE.
- In derivatives, the project caught up with major CEXs.
- A model of ‘AWS for liquidity’ is forming.
6) The USA legalizes crypto through stablecoins
- The adoption of the GENIUS Act provided stablecoins with clear rules of the game.
- Bitcoin is de facto recognized as a strategic reserve asset of the USA.
- Cryptocurrency has ceased to be a marginal topic and has become part of the financial system.
- The downside: the commercialization of politics has intensified (meme coins from politicians, conflicts of interest).
7) Stablecoins - a tool for dollar expansion
- #USDT and #USDC control the lion's share of the market. Stablecoin issuers have become some of the largest holders of US government bonds.
- Stablecoins are a payment rail/infrastructure for tokenized assets (RWA) and DeFi.
8) RWA: tokenized government bonds are the main case for institutional investors
- Tokenized US treasury bonds are the most mature and fastest-growing sector of RWA. The market has grown several times in the last two years.
- Tokenization provides compatibility with DeFi and instant settlements.
- The connection with TradFi is strengthening - systemic shocks will be transmitted faster.
9) Prediction markets have gone mainstream
- Polymarket and Kalshi - a duopoly. Volumes reached tens of billions.
- The launch of tokens in 2026 is the main test of resilience.
10) L2: tough selection
- Capital is concentrating among leaders (Base, Arbitrum).
- Most L2s are losing TVL, activity, and token prices.
- The problem - tokens do not capture value.
- The future lies in convenience and integration, not in new networks.
11) Airdrops: the classic model has died
- Most tokens lost 70-90% of their value after the airdrop.
- Retroactive distributions attract hunters, not real users, and destroy ecosystems.
- Projects are moving to profit distribution, ICO mechanics, or completely abandoning tokens.
12) Narratives for 2026: Privacy and Crypto + AI
- Interest in private transactions and privacy infrastructure is returning
- The focus has shifted from the tokenization of models to computation markets, verification, and coordination of AI agents. Cryptocurrency is useful for AI as a layer for calculations, trust, and automatic payments. Bittensor (#TAO) is the most mature ecosystem at the intersection of crypto and AI.
