Why has Bitcoin significantly underperformed gold and the US stock market?

Energy arbitrage shift: The explosive growth of generative AI, with its power consumption generating economic added value temporarily exceeding that of Bitcoin mining, has led to capital flowing from Bitcoin to productivity assets like AI computing power.

Atomic advantage of gold: Against the backdrop of increasing global geopolitical uncertainty, gold provides a more certain extreme safe-haven value due to its physical atomic properties (not relying on networks and settlement systems), surpassing Bitcoin, which depends on digital infrastructure, in the short term.

ETFs’ taming effect: The popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs has incorporated it into traditional asset allocation, following traditional risk control models, which has smoothed its volatility, weakening its short-term explosive power and making its performance more akin to that of highly volatile technology stocks.

Narrative appeal dilution: On the eve of the productivity singularity (AI revolution), funds are concentrated on chasing AI monopoly companies that can generate nonlinear growth, increasing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow, thereby diluting its narrative appeal as a "challenger to the monetary system."

System phase transition and reconstruction: From the perspective of complex systems, the current Bitcoin price is the result of early profit-taking pressure counterbalancing long-term capital buying, situated in a low-volatility oscillation phase of "attractor reconstruction," accumulating energy for the next scale change. It is not being falsified but is being repriced, temporarily yielding to productivity and geopolitical defense demands.