The 'black storm' in the crypto market from last week is still reverberating, with 270,000 people liquidated in 48 hours, losing $985 million, of which $870 million were liquidated long positions, a data point that has shocked countless people. All the messages in the background say, 'I can't hold on anymore, I'm cutting losses and leaving the market.' This scene is reminiscent of a repeat of the 2022 bear market, but this time it is more brutal, as many people went in with the obsession of 'buying the dip and turning the tide.' As someone who has witnessed three rounds of bear markets, I must say: 90% of people cannot survive a bear market, and the primary sin is treating leverage as a shortcut and buying the dip as a belief.
First, let's get to the data: CryptoQuant's latest report shows that the current average leverage ratio in the derivatives market is still as high as 6.2 times, with high-leverage positions accounting for over 90%. This means that as long as Bitcoin's daily decline exceeds 5%, it will trigger a chain liquidation. On December 1st, when Bitcoin plummeted by 8%, I personally witnessed a retail investor using 50x leverage to buy the dip, going from a floating profit of 30% to liquidation in just 20 minutes, leaving a message saying, 'I lost half a year's salary.' It must be emphasized that my core view is: leverage in a bear market is like pouring salt on a wound; you think it can speed up healing, but it will actually cause the blood to flow out.
More deadly is the 'bottom fishing syndrome.' Many people focus on historical data saying 'Bitcoin will hit bottom at 80,000,' but they ignore the current macro environment, where expectations for Fed rate cuts are cooling and the real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has soared to 4.8%. With risk-free assets offering such high returns, who would still hold high-risk cryptocurrencies? Data doesn't lie: By the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned net sellers, with total holdings decreasing by 24,000 BTC, which is a clear signal of institutional capital withdrawal. What you think is the bottom might just be halfway up the mountain for institutions offloading their assets.
A bear market is like a breakup; those who get through it become love gurus, while those who can't handle it become resentful. I've seen the most stable investors either stay in cash and watch from the sidelines during a bear market or invest no more than 10% of their spare money in leading cryptocurrencies. If you're still struggling with the decision of 'should I buy the dip?', you might as well ask yourself first: Will losing this money affect my life? Follow me.@砸你乃个别 The next article will teach you the three steps to 'stop the bleeding' in a bear market, allowing you to avoid at least 80% of the detours.
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