Gold breaks the ceiling, Bitcoin stabilizes at $89,000, while crude oil becomes the 'awkward third party'.
Market sentiment changed overnight, with funds quietly shifting from risk-averse mode to risk-taking mode.
The Christmas bells have not yet rung, but the Christmas Santa of the capital market has already started his shift early. This Monday, the crypto market welcomed a long-awaited surge, with Bitcoin successfully reclaiming the $89,000 mark, Ethereum stabilizing above the psychological threshold of $3,000, and gold even setting a new historical high.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices have engaged in fierce battles at the mid-term juncture, becoming the most awkward role in this holiday market.
As a senior crypto analyst, I clearly feel the change in market enthusiasm. Investors who were tense last week are now cautiously optimistic and tentatively entering the market.
01 The market is blooming comprehensively, with distinct structural characteristics
The Christmas market is finally no longer just a statistical phenomenon in historical data, but has turned into a real increase in asset prices. As of December 22, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the $89,000 mark, and Ethereum also regained the $3,000 level.
The most surprising thing is that gold has actually refreshed its historical high. This pattern of traditional safe-haven assets rising in sync with crypto assets is extremely rare in the past.
However, the real highlight lies in the market's structural characteristics. This rise is not a blind increase; it is a clear rotation of sectors: the NFT sector is leading the way, soaring nearly 9%, the RWA sector is up 3.53%, while the AI and Layer 2 sectors are going against the trend and falling.
This differentiation tells me that capital has bid farewell to the blind phase of 'chasing gains and cutting losses' and has entered a refined selection process for value discovery.
02 Bitcoin stabilizes at a key level, and positive signals appear on the technical front
Bitcoin reclaiming $89,000 is significant. From a technical analysis perspective, the range between $85,000 and $90,000 is the previous concentration trading area and key support level.
Bitcoin's stabilization has directly stabilized market confidence. When Bitcoin hovers around $88,000, both bulls and bears engage in a tug-of-war, and this 'temporary pause' has built up energy for significant fluctuations after the holiday.
Currently, Bitcoin's moving average has issued a 'strong buy' signal, with 8 out of 10 major moving averages suggesting a buy. The RSI is at 56.459, in the neutral to bullish zone; the MACD indicator also shows a buy signal.
My judgment on the post-holiday market is: If Bitcoin can stabilize above $89,000, it may pave the way for further increases, with the primary target in the $90,500-$91,000 range.
03 Ethereum and the NFT sector form a virtuous interaction
Ethereum performed stronger than Bitcoin this time, rising 2.30% and successfully breaking through and stabilizing at the critical $3,000 position. This perfectly echoes the leading rise of the NFT sector.
The vast majority of NFT projects are built on the Ethereum network, which is the underlying infrastructure they rely on for survival. The rebound of Ethereum's price and the activity of the NFT sector create a positive cycle: Ethereum's strength attracts more funds into the Ethereum ecosystem, some of which flow into the NFT field, and the activity in the ecosystem in turn enhances the value of the Ethereum network.
The explosion of the NFT sector is not a coincidence. After more than half a year of adjustment, many blue-chip NFT floor prices have dropped by more than 70% from their peak, and valuations have entered a reasonable range. At the same time, NFTs themselves are transforming from mere image collections to community credentials and game assets with actual utility.
04 Gold and Bitcoin: An unexpected 'safe-haven alliance'
Gold refreshing its historical high, alongside Bitcoin's synchronous rise, breaks the traditional financial theory of asset correlation. Since 2025, the negative correlation between gold and Bitcoin has reached -0.87, indicating that they are more complementary than competitive.
Behind this new type of correlation is the global capital's questioning of the traditional single dollar pricing system. When the U.S. fiscal deficit reaches an astonishing 16% of GDP, and the Trump administration's tariff policies weaken consumer purchasing power, the market is searching for diversified value storage methods.
In my view, gold represents a return to a millennia-old trust, while Bitcoin symbolizes a revolution in digital technology. The simultaneous rise of both reflects the market's reimagining of the future financial landscape.
05 The awkward position of crude oil and capital flow
In stark contrast to the strength of gold and crypto assets, crude oil prices are engaged in a tug-of-war at the mid-term juncture. This differentiation reveals deep structural changes in the global economy.
The weakness in crude oil stems from pressures on both supply and demand. On the supply side, OPEC+ continues to release production capacity; on the demand side, the global energy transition is accelerating, and the proliferation of electric vehicles has reduced demand for transportation fuels.
More critically, the traditional correlation between the dollar and crude oil has been broken. In the first half of 2025, the dollar index fell by 11%, while crude oil prices also fell to around $50 per barrel, breaking the past logic of 'dollar falls, crude oil rises'.
This differentiation has made crude oil the 'awkward third party' in this Christmas market. Funds are flowing out of traditional commodities and partially towards emerging fields such as crypto assets.
06 Analysis of the sustainability of the Christmas market
In the face of this rise, the question investors are most concerned about is: Is this a true trend reversal or just a fleeting technical rebound?
From a macro perspective, subtle changes in Federal Reserve policy are appearing. On December 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which, despite its 'hawkish' implications (expected to narrow the rate cut to 50 basis points by 2026), still continues the direction of easing. The market's expectations for liquidity easing have begun to rise.
From the perspective of capital flow, the market may be switching from 'risk-off mode' to 'risk-on mode'. During the previous decline, funds flowed into core assets like Bitcoin for safety; currently, funds are beginning to flow into high-beta sectors like NFTs and RWAs, indicating an increase in risk appetite.
However, the lack of liquidity during the holiday period may amplify volatility risks. With trading volume declining during the Christmas holiday, the market is prone to 'spike' movements. I suggest that investors maintain a degree of caution amidst optimism.
This Christmas, the market has given us a nice gift. However, as an experienced player, I want to remind everyone: Historical data shows that from Thanksgiving to Christmas, Bitcoin's average return rate is 11.5%, but the post-holiday trend often diverges.
In the coming week, I will focus on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the resistance level of $90,500, and whether gold can maintain its historical high. These two signals will determine whether this round of market is a brief 'Santa Claus rally' or the beginning of a true trend reversal.
The market will always provide opportunities in fear and bury risks in greed. During this Christmas holiday, it would be good to relax a bit and enjoy the rare warm moments in the market.
What do you think about this round of the market? Feel free to share your views and judgments in the comments!
Follow me@加密崎哥 #比特币与黄金战争 $BTC
