Will Bitcoin Break $100K before 2026? What Prediction Markets and Macro Trends Are Signaling
Can Bitcoin Return to $100K Before 2026?
Bitcoin has finally begun to show signs of rebound after moving sideways for several weeks. After briefly dropping to the $84K area, the price bounced back and successfully broke above the $93K level. This rebound occurred when the global market began to foresee a significant chance that the Fed would cut interest rates by the end of 2025. This article will discuss Bitcoin's movements and the likelihood of BTC breaking $100K before entering 2026!
Bitcoin Movement Ahead of 2026
The recovery of Bitcoin's price from $84K to above $93K has become one of the important movements after a relatively long sideways period. For several weeks, the market appeared passive with declining volume and relatively low volatility. The break above $93K finally signaled that selling pressure was starting to decrease and buying interest was re-emerging in the lower area.
This price structure has not fully changed the medium-term trend but shows that Bitcoin is starting to build new momentum. If the price can remain stable above the $93K zone and retest the next resistance area, the chances to continue strengthening will increasingly be open. The market is currently in a transition phase, where responses to key levels will determine whether this rebound will continue or just become a temporary bounce.
Macro Sentiment Strengthens Amid Bitcoin Rebound
Expectations for Fed interest rate cuts are strengthening again and becoming one of the key factors shaping the market direction today. The probability that the Fed will implement a rate cut by the end of 2025 has soared to 92 percent according to Polymarket. This surge indicates that market participants are beginning to see the potential for monetary policy easing much greater than a few months ago. Such changes in expectations are usually quickly reflected in risk assets, including crypto, as lower interest rates tend to encourage capital flows back into the market.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin also shows a positive response. This movement also impacts altcoins, but in such phases, alts usually wait for further confirmation from BTC before entering a more aggressive trend.
Altcoin Conditions Still Depend on Bitcoin Confirmation
Although market sentiment has improved, altcoin movements so far have not shown significant changes. The increases that have occurred tend to be limited to assets with large market capitalizations and high liquidity, while most other altcoins have moved relatively flat. This reflects that market participants remain selective and have not fully increased their risk exposure.
The high dominance of Bitcoin indicates that capital allocation is still concentrated on major assets. In such conditions, altcoins have not functioned as market drivers, but rather as lagging indicators. As long as Bitcoin has not formed a more consistent upward trend, capital rotation to altcoins could be restrained.
ETF Fund Flows Begin to Show Stability
The movement of Bitcoin ETFs has once again become one of the important signals read by market participants. After a prolonged period of outflow, the latest data shows that fund flows are starting to stabilize and are no longer recording outflows like in previous weeks. In fact, during several sessions, Bitcoin ETFs have begun to record light inflows, indicating that selling pressure from institutional investors is starting to ease.
This stabilization is important because ETFs have a significant influence on Bitcoin's demand structure. When outflows slow down, selling pressure automatically decreases and gives room for prices to move more steadily. Although the inflows received are not yet large enough to drive aggressive rallies, the cessation of outflows alone is a positive first step towards forming new momentum.
If institutional interest strengthens in line with expectations of interest rate cuts, ETFs could become an additional catalyst that accelerates Bitcoin's journey towards the next psychological levels. For now, investors remain selective, but the stabilization pattern in ETFs indicates that the worst phase may have already started to pass.
How Realistic is the $100K Target Before 2026
In terms of price distance, Bitcoin's rise to $100K before 2026 is not an extreme scenario. From the $90K area, the required increase is about 10–15 percent, much smaller compared to Bitcoin's large rally in the previous cycle. However, this movement still requires consistent support, not just a short-term bounce.
From a technical perspective, levels around $93K–$95K have now become important areas to maintain. As long as the price can hold above this zone and form a higher low structure, the chances for continued increases remain open. If this structure is maintained, Bitcoin has room to gradually test the psychological resistance at $100K.
However, if the price fails to maintain that area, the risk of returning to a consolidation phase will increase. In this scenario, movement towards $100K is likely to be delayed as the market requires further accumulation. Given the current conditions, the $100K target before 2026 is still technically realistic, but it heavily depends on the price's ability to maintain an upward structure without significant breakdowns.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is in a recovery phase even though its technical structure still requires additional confirmation for a clearer medium-term direction. Price movements that hold above key areas indicate that selling pressure is starting to weaken and buying interest is forming again through more regular higher lows. As long as this pattern continues and there is no significant breakdown below key support levels, the chance of reaching around $100K before 2026 remains open, although the scenario will only strengthen if the next bullish structure is confirmed clearly.
Risk Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. You should only invest in products that you are familiar with and where you understand the associated risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment. This material should not be construed as financial advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the amount you invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions
