1. Acknowledge the uncertainty of the market to find certainty
After many years in this industry, my biggest insight is that the only certainty in the market is 'uncertainty.' Every time I open the candlestick chart, price fluctuations feel like unboxing a mystery box, but the ones who truly make money are not those who guess each fluctuation correctly, but those who rely on a set of long-term 'mathematical advantages.'
For example, my own trading system:
Only trade in clearly trending markets (for example, never go short when moving averages are in a bullish arrangement);
Only take action when there is a pullback to key levels (for example, in an uptrend, wait for support levels to be tested and look for bullish candlestick signals);
Always prioritize stop-loss (keep individual losses within 1%-2% of capital).
These rules may seem simple, but over a long period, maintaining a win rate of 40%-60% combined with a profit-loss ratio of over 1.5 means the mathematical expectation is positive. It’s like running a convenience store: individual trades may lose, but after 100 trades in a day, total income will definitely cover costs.
2. My 'three axes': Trend, Position, Signal.
Many people lose money because they always want to 'bottom-fish and top-tick', but I never believe in such mysticism. My strategy's core is just three points:
(1) Trend is king; those who follow the trend prosper.
Use moving average systems (like MA21, MA55, MA144) to simply divide long and short: only go long when the price is above the moving average and only go short when it is below.
Don’t go against the trend! For example, in this year's Bitcoin bullish trend, any pullback near MA144 is an opportunity to enter. Those who short against the trend have mostly been buried.
(2) Key levels are the mother, supporting the entire trade.
After the trend is established, the price will always run from the 'previous key level' to the 'next key level'. For example, in an uptrend, the upper edge of the previous dense trading area and the golden ratio of 0.618 are strong supports.
I often say: 'Pullbacks are opportunities to give you money,' but the premise is that you must hold back from making random moves halfway.
(3) Signals are bullets; don’t shoot eagles without seeing rabbits.
When reaching a critical level, you must wait for a clear K-line reversal signal (like bullish engulfing or hammer). For example, last time when ETH retraced to $2850, a strong bullish candle appeared before I dared to go long.
Never rush based on feelings! Many people lose money because they feel that 'it will rise' and end up buying at the peak of a false breakout.
3. The ultimate secret to making money: Discipline > Prediction.
I have seen too many people become obsessed with studying technical indicators, yet overlook the most crucial point: trading is a game of discipline, not a contest of IQ.
Stop-loss is 'insurance', not shame: I must carry a stop-loss on every trade; cut losses immediately at 5%, and never hold onto a losing position. Remember, preserving capital is preserving life; if the market goes wrong, you can start over, but if capital is gone, you must exit.
Profits must be 'nurtured', don’t rush to cash out: many people run after making 10% but hold on when losing 20%. My habit is to add to positions with floating profits (like adding when it rises 30% and retraces), and use trailing stop-loss (like MA20) to let profits run.
Not trading is the highest-level operation: when the market is chaotic, I would rather hold stablecoins to earn interest than gamble on direction. Opportunities are available every day, but the capital is only available once.
Summary: My core principles.
Only eat the fish body, not the head or tail: the middle section of a clear trend is the safest; give up the fantasy of bottom-fishing or top-ticking.
Rules outweigh emotions: write a trading plan in advance and never change the stop loss after opening a position.
Patience is the only advantage of retail investors: wait for the trend, wait for the position, wait for the signal, and only act when all three are in place.
Finally, I want to share a quote with everyone: 'The crypto world lacks stars, only lacks longevity.' The market fluctuations will be greater in 2025, but as long as you maintain discipline, there's a high probability you'll survive and make money.
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