As Bitcoin rushes towards $180,000, the vast majority of altcoins will lag behind. As an old hand in the crypto space, I felt very emotional after seeing today's report from BlockBeats. The views of CoinEx Research's chief analyst Jeff Ko almost confirm my most worrying judgment: there will not be a traditional altcoin bull market in 2026.
Retail investors may genuinely not see the altcoin season they were hoping for. Jeff Ko clearly stated that liquidity will be extremely selective and will only flow to truly recognized blue-chip stocks.
This is completely consistent with my recent observations. After experiencing an overall decline of more than 30% in 2025, the market structure has fundamentally changed. Today, I want to candidly share my views: in 2026, the vast majority of altcoins will disappoint investors.
Look at this year's data. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell more than 30% throughout the year, while most altcoins fell more than 50%. The proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum held by retail investors has decreased by about 15% compared to 2024.
What is more concerning is that long-term holders are making epic distributions. They are not panicking and selling, but rather selling in a planned and phased manner. These 'whales' are smarter than regular retail investors, and their actions say it all.
Jeff Ko points out that since the launch of ETFs in 2024, Bitcoin's sensitivity to M2 money supply growth has weakened. This means that the traditional logic of 'more money equals higher prices' is failing.
The only hope in the market right now is the four-year cycle theory, but this theory may no longer apply in 2026. The market environment has changed, central bank policies in various countries are diverging, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are also unclear.
Why won't there be an altcoin season in 2026?
First, insufficient liquidity is a fatal problem. Jeff Ko predicts that global liquidity in 2026 will only have mild benefits, and the divergence in central bank policies will suppress liquidity expansion.
Even if Bitcoin rises to $180,000, it will no longer drive all altcoins to surge. Market funds will only concentrate on a few of the safest assets.
Secondly, regulatory pressure is increasing. In 2026, various countries may further tighten regulations on cryptocurrencies. This would be a fatal blow to small-cap altcoins that rely on speculative hype.
Finally, there is a lack of innovation within the industry. Aside from a few tracks like the combination of AI and cryptocurrency, and RWA, most altcoin projects lack practical utility and cash flow.
The market is transitioning from a Beta market to Alpha mining. This means that overall opportunities are decreasing, while individual differentiation is increasing.
Which altcoins might become survivors?
Not all altcoins will fail. According to Jeff Ko, only blue chip cryptocurrencies can attract the vast majority of liquidity. I believe the following categories have survival opportunities: The first category includes projects with actual income and cash flow, such as some major DeFi protocols that can generate real transaction fee income. The market will test the true value of each project more harshly, and projects seeking real returns will be favored. The second category includes regulation-friendly tokens. Assets that comply with regulatory frameworks will receive a legitimacy premium. RWA and regulatory-compliant stablecoin projects are worth paying attention to. The third category includes projects closely tied to the real economy, such as those combining with AI-driven economies and tokenized real-world assets. VC funding is also focusing on large deals and utility, with capital leaning towards a few leading projects that emphasize actual utility and cash flow.
In the face of such a market environment, here are a few straightforward suggestions:
Give up the fantasy of an altcoin season. Retail investors expecting all altcoins to benefit will be disappointed. Accepting this reality is the first step to survival in 2026.
Focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Jeff Ko's company predicts a target price of $180,000 for Bitcoin by 2026. In an uncertain market, leading assets are the safest choice.
If you must allocate to altcoins, prioritize blue chips. Tokens in the top 20 by market capitalization are relatively safer. Small-cap altcoins are extremely risky and could very likely go to zero.
Maintain cash reserves. Market volatility will intensify, and having cash can seize opportunities in extreme conditions. In the coming month, fluctuations may be driven by sudden news, and high positions and leverage can lead to quick losses.
2026 will be a turning point for the cryptocurrency market, transitioning from its adolescence to maturity. The era of all boats rising with the tide is over; now it is necessary to accurately identify which boats have their own power.
As retail investors, we need to understand: living longer is a hundred times more important than making more in the short term. In an environment of liquidity tightening, being conservative is not weakness, but wisdom.
Jeff Ko's analysis has taught me that the market is returning to rationality, which is good for the long-term development of the industry, but for retail investors who are used to speculation, a complete change of strategy is needed.
If you still plan to invest in altcoins in 2026, now is the time to reassess your portfolio. My personal choice is to allocate 80% of my funds to Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a maximum of 20% distributed among 3-5 blue chip altcoins that I believe are most likely to survive.
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