#美股2026预测 2026 The first black swan takes off! Countdown to the change of Fed leadership, the life-and-death trial in the crypto world is approaching. The crypto market is facing a "perfect storm" that is set to explode in January. This number one black swan of 2026 does not come from the SEC's regulatory crackdown, nor from a sudden ban by a government, but from the undercurrents long brewing on Wall Street— the change of the Federal Reserve chair.
Why is this the "ultimate test" for the crypto world? The Federal Reserve controls the "master valve" of the global dollar, and its policies directly determine the flow of funds. Current market predictions show that Kevin Hassett, who Trump may nominate, has a probability as high as 54%. This former Trump economic advisor is a typical dove and has recently publicly stated that "inflation is below target, and there is ample room for rate cuts". If he takes office, it will release massive liquidity in the short term, and BTC and altcoins may experience a retaliatory rise.
But the risk is: if the final candidate is an academic hawk (like John Cochrane), the rate cut expectations that have been hard to accumulate since 2025 will be instantly reversed. The more fully the market prices in "Hassett", the more deadly the impact of unmet expectations will be.
Current market anomaly: the truth about ineffective positive news. Recently, BTC has repeatedly broken through 98000 dollars and then quickly retreated, while positive news such as ETH's Cancun upgrade and SOL's ecological explosion have shown a "one-day tour" trend. This confirms the core judgment of the original text— the market has entered a "policy vacuum paralysis period". All technical indicators fail in the face of macro variables, and both bulls and bears are waiting for that "shoe to drop" in the first week of January.
On-chain data further confirms the cautious sentiment: stablecoin reserves have reached historical highs, but there has been no large-scale entry; contract positions continue to decrease, indicating that leveraged funds are retreating. This is not a bear market, but rather a "silence before the storm" for large funds.
Remember: the name of the central bank governor is more important than any technical analysis. In this "Squid Game" led by the Federal Reserve, those who survive longer win.
Do you think Hassett can ultimately take office? If the hawks unexpectedly win, will BTC drop below 85000? Feel free to leave your judgment in the comments! If you think this article hits the pain points of the current market, please like and share it to help more comrades avoid this January storm! Follow this account @币圈掘金人 . After the candidate is confirmed in January, I will interpret policy signals and provide accumulation strategies as soon as possible! $BTC
