I am a female analyst who climbed from the traditional trading world into the crypto space. I don't like to talk about metaphysics, only believe in logic and probability. This circle is too noisy, but I am used to using cold data to smooth out emotions. Today I want to talk about something real: the fundamental strategies that allow me to survive and make money boil down to two sets - either waiting for the big cycle to swallow, or nibbling on small fluctuations.
First move: Big cycle heavy position, betting on vision and patience
This strategy is like whaling - three years without a catch, then three years of plenty. But a heavy position is not a gamble on life, it's a calculated strike after understanding the odds.
Fundamentals provide a safety net, technicals pull the trigger
In the crypto market, solely watching candlesticks and holding heavy positions is tantamount to suicide. My logic is: fundamentals determine 'whether it can be done,' while technicals determine 'when to do it.'
For example, during the DeFi summer of 2020, I heavily invested in UNI, not because of the MACD golden cross but because I saw explosive on-chain transaction volumes and protocol revenues surpassing traditional exchanges.
Similarly, before the Bitcoin halving in 2024, my logic for accumulating coins was not 'history will repeat itself,' but rather that on-chain data showed miners accumulating and the number of long-term holder addresses hitting new highs.
Holding against human nature: the key is being able to withstand intermediate pullbacks.
Major trends inevitably involve intermediate pullbacks, such as Bitcoin's multiple 30% drop during the bull market in 2021. My position at the time was leveraged borrowing, but the stop-loss line was set at the point where the fundamentals failed (like a sharp decrease in on-chain active addresses), not at the price volatility line.
The secret to surviving a pullback: review on-chain data and economic models weekly; as long as the underlying logic remains intact, price fluctuations are merely noise.
Personal opinion: This strategy is suitable for those who can conduct in-depth research and have patience. If you get anxious watching the market every day, don't learn this—holding a heavy position during a pullback is akin to torture.
Second technique: small time frame leverages large swings, earning probability differences.
This is my current main strategy, core formula: small stop-loss + high odds + resonance filtering = long-term positive expectation.
The essence of 'betting small for big gains': stop-loss must be tight, and position size must be aggressive.
My maximum stop-loss limit is 1% of total funds, but the stop-loss distance is only set at the amplitude of a small time frame's key candlestick (like 0.5 times the ATR on a 4-hour chart). This means:
If the stop-loss space is only 0.5%, I can open a position with 2% of the principal (based on the loss).
And once in profit, the target is at least three times the stop-loss space.
Five major filters to enhance win rates (refuse to open positions blindly!).
Level resonance: the daily chart looks bullish, but wait for a structural breakout on the 4-hour chart (like a triangle breakout) before taking action.
Category linkage: for example, if Ethereum breaks through, it is necessary to observe whether ecological coins like MATIC and ARB are also increasing in volume.
Identifying divergence between volume and price: a reduction in volume at the end of a pullback + the appearance of a pin bar (hammer candlestick) on a small time frame is a reversal signal.
Capital flow monitoring: use on-chain tools to observe large transfers. If the price drops but net outflows from exchanges increase, it could be accumulation.
Push for breakeven: after opening a position, if the price moves out by one stop-loss space, immediately pull the stop-loss up to the cost line—preserving the principal is the premise of everything.
Blood and tears lesson: I once stubbornly held on to Dogecoin stop-loss because I 'felt it would rise,' losing 10% in a single day. Now I only trust the rules: write a clear plan before opening a position, and shut down to review after hitting the stop-loss.
Lastly, let's talk some human language.
Don't blindly believe in a 'holy grail': my strategy may not be suitable for you—your personality, capital, and risk tolerance are the soil for the strategy.
There is no 'guaranteed profit' in the crypto market: even if the on-chain data is good, a black swan can still crash the market. The only thing I can control is how much I lose, not how much I gain.
Female advantage: I am more sensitive to emotions and details, such as judging market tops through community sentiment fluctuations (analyzing trending topics on social media).
Trading is the realization of cognition, but the prerequisite is staying alive. My two sets of techniques fundamentally boil down to 'stockpiling in a bear market, hunting in a bull market'—either wait for the wind to come or ride the wind for a while. Don't be greedy and eat the whole fish; the meat in the middle is fat enough.
Follow Ake to learn more about first-hand information and precise points in the crypto world, becoming your navigation in the crypto circle; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
