Brothers, Christmas is coming, but the market has started to 'shrink for the holiday'! Bitcoin surged to 90,500 last night before being dumped, now it has fallen below the 88,000 lifeline, barely surviving around 87,500. Is this a deliberate shakeout by the big players, or the beginning of a significant drop? Zhou Yi will analyze tonight's market direction using a combination of news and hardcore technical analysis!
News: Liquidity is drying up, options expiration is a minefield
As the Christmas holiday approaches, institutional big shots are gradually taking vacations, and market liquidity has clearly shrunk. Data shows that the open interest in BTC perpetual contracts dropped by $3 billion overnight, and ETH decreased by $2 billion—this is not accumulation, but a collective run for the exits to deleverage!
What’s more exciting is that there will be about $23.7 billion in BTC options expiring this Friday, with more than half of the contracts on Deribit concentrated on Boxing Day, with strike prices focused around $100,000 and $85,000, and the maximum pain point at $95,000.
This means: The market makers intend to 'pull' the price towards $95,000, but if it breaks below $85,000, panic selling may be imminent!
Technical aspect: The 1-hour chart has broken, with key support here.
From the 1-hour candlestick chart you provided:
Resistance level: 90,500 (last night's high), 89,250 (rebound pressure)
Key support: 86,800 (the line of life and death!), 85,000 (previous low strong support)
Indicator signals: RSI has fallen into the oversold zone, MACD green bars are weakening, and the golden cross has turned into a death cross, with volume increasing as it declines, with bears temporarily in control.
In simple terms: If 86,800 cannot hold, the next stop is below 85,000; but if it can hold, there is still a chance to rebound back above 88,000 and oscillate.
Zhouyi's personal opinion: Oscillation continues, beware of holiday black swans.
I believe that in the low liquidity environment of Christmas week, the market is prone to sharp short-term spikes.
Although the market still has a glimmer of hope for a 'Christmas rally' (the $100,000 call option positions have not significantly decreased), the overall sentiment has turned bearish.
Tonight, the key is to watch 86,800: if it does not break, a light position can be taken to bet on a rebound; if it breaks, then follow the trend and look for shorts. Year-end tax loss selling may still amplify volatility in low liquidity, so it is recommended to stay cautious and not to go all in easily.
Zhouyi's suggestion:
Aggressive long position: Lightly try long near 86,800-87,000, with a stop loss at 86,500 and a target of 88,000-88,500.
Steady short position: If it breaks below 86,800 and stabilizes, shorting can be pursued, with a target below 85,000.
Breakout long position: If it can stabilize above 88,500 again, it could reach 89,500-90,500.
(For specific precise points and real-time strategies, please follow Zhouyi to find Zhouyi Village, here we only provide directional references.)
Zhouyi publishes three waves of strategies in the village every day. If you are not holding a position of 5 million, please follow Zhouyi Village's real-time suggestions to avoid liquidation risk. Currently, the market is unpredictable, and each villager has different positions, so please update the entry points published by Zhouyi in the village in real time!#美国讨论BTC战略储备 $BTC
