Ethereum exchange inflows surge by $70 million, short-term selling pressure warning signal

On-chain data shows that on December 22, the total net inflow to all centralized exchanges was 28,206 ETH, valued at approximately $70.5 million based on the price of around $2,500 at that time. This figure sharply contrasts with the net outflow of 18,173 ETH the previous day, with a single-day reversal exceeding 46,000 ETH.

Exchange inflows are typically interpreted as a potential selling pressure signal. When holders transfer ETH from their wallets to platforms like Binance or Coinbase, it often indicates preparations for selling or engaging in leveraged trading. This is corroborated by changes in the supply of long-term holders on-chain. If the supply from long-term holders decreases while the exchange balances increase, it confirms that distribution is occurring.

The timing is noteworthy. On December 22, BlackRock deposited 29,928 ETH worth approximately $91.3 million into Coinbase Prime. This institutional-level operation may be an important part of the inflow surge that day. As the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock's actions often spark market speculation. Although the deposit into Coinbase may be for custody needs rather than immediate selling, it still impacts market confidence on a psychological level.

From the price trend, ETH dropped from $3,055 to $2,977 between December 22 and 23, a decline of about 2.5%, coinciding with the inflow data timeline. Technical indicators show a 1-hour RSI dropping to 38.9, entering the oversold region, while the 4-hour RSI is at 44.3, indicating weakness. The daily MACD, although the histogram turned positive showing potential bullish divergence, lacks significant short-term momentum.

In comparison to BTC, Bitcoin also experienced exchange inflows during the same period, but the magnitude was relatively mild. The volatility of ETH inflows and outflows may be related to its more diverse ecological application scenarios. DeFi protocol liquidations, NFT transaction settlements, Layer 2 bridging, etc., all contribute to the frequent movement of ETH between on-chain and exchanges.

In terms of investment strategy, single-day inflow data is insufficient to determine trend reversals; continuous observation of 3 to 5 days of data is required. If the net inflow to exchanges continues alongside falling prices, it confirms the existence of selling pressure, and consideration should be given to reducing positions. Conversely, if prices stabilize or even rebound after inflows, it indicates strong market absorption. Currently, key support is around $2,950; breaking below may test the $2,850 to $2,900 region. Resistance above is at $3,050 to $3,100, and a volume breakout is needed to confirm an effective rebound. It is recommended to remain cautious and wait for clearer directional signals.