Dear coin friends, I am Zhao Gongming. Today, the XRP market witnessed the most divided scene: on one side, ETF institutions are rushing in with real money, while on the other side, the coin price seems nailed down, lying motionless below 1.89. Is this a pie or a trap? Follow Zhao Gongming, and I will break this layer of window paper for you.
News and funding: ETF's 'clear buy' and the market's 'secret dumping'
The hardest news today is: the US XRP spot ETF saw a net inflow of $43.89 million yesterday, with a total inflow exceeding $1.1 billion. This is indeed a solid long-term positive, indicating that large institutions are continuously buying in the bottom area.
However! The market's fund data is playing another scene:
Spot market: Although ETFs are buying, in the past 4 hours, on-chain spot funds have net flowed out $3.78 million, and the outflow rate has reached over 1800%. This indicates that other large players or smart money are quietly selling to cash out, taking advantage of the liquidity created by ETF buying.
Contract market: Funds are also flowing out, indicating that leveraged fund sentiment is pessimistic and not following the trend.
This has formed a brutal confrontation between 'institutional support' and 'large players offloading'. The ETF acts like a hand catching from below, but there is more selling pressure above pushing down. Therefore, the price is firmly suppressed and cannot rise.
Technical aspect: The trend is king, and all good news is an 'escape route'.
No matter how nice the news sounds, the 1-hour K-line chart won't lie. XRP is still in a clear downtrend, with technical indicators consistently showing 'strong sell' from 30 minutes to 1 week. It is now caught between several key positions:
Upper ceiling: 1.89 (short-term bull-bear death line), 2 dollars (strong psychological and integer barrier)
Lower floor: 1.82 (weak support, can be easily broken), 1.77 (previous low area, strong support)
The MACD has a dead cross below the 0 axis, and the energy bar is shrinking, which is a typical 'continuation pattern in a downtrend'. All rebounds caused by ETF inflows will be pushed back by the bearish forces of the trend.
Zhao Gongming's daily sharing, if it helps you, feel free to follow Zhao Gongming and join the chat room for first-hand news and entry points!
Zhao Gongming's views and operational advice
Zhao Gongming's judgment is clear: before the downtrend is reversed, ETF buying can only delay the decline and create fluctuations, but cannot immediately drive a reversal. XRP will likely experience a complex fluctuation between 1.77 and 1.89, using time to exchange for space.
Advice for holding long positions: Be realistic. It is recommended to use the opportunity when the price rebounds to the 1.88-1.89 area due to ETF news to reduce positions or exit. This is not the start of a bull market; it is an opportunity for you to optimize your position.
Advice for opening new positions: Do not chase the rise! The core idea is 'range trading, short high and long low', but it leans more towards shorting high. You can try shorting with light positions when the price rebounds to the 1.87-1.89 resistance area; if the price falls to the 1.78-1.80 support area, you can lightly position for a rebound. Regardless of bullish or bearish, positions must be light; the current market is a fluctuating market, not a trending market.
Key action points: Only a strong breakout above 1.89 that holds can reverse the short-term decline, aiming for 1.95-2.0; however, if it falls below 1.82, it will likely test the 1.77 support, which is the last line of defense for bulls.
The market always hides the deepest traps in the most optimistic news. When everyone is cheering for ETF inflows, what you need to watch is whether the price can break through key resistance. If you are also tired of being caught in various contradictory information, feel free to follow Zhao Gongming. Every day in the chat room, I do one thing: help you clarify the real intentions of the main players behind these complex signals, so you no longer become a scapegoat for the news.#美联储回购协议计划 #美国讨论BTC战略储备
