The U.S. economy's growth rate in the third quarter is expected to remain strong, primarily due to the resilience of consumer spending and a recovery in business investment: Employment and wages support household consumption, while manufacturing reshoring and supply chain adjustments drive increases in business capital expenditures. However, GDP data has been delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown, highlighting the "K-shaped growth" characteristic of the U.S. economy—high-income groups are benefiting from asset and employment advantages, boosting their consumption, while low and middle-income households are squeezed by inflation, resulting in weaker purchasing power, with consumption more concentrated on necessities.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, growth may slow: Cost of living pressures persist, with some services and housing prices remaining sticky; the lagging effects of the government shutdown may disrupt public spending and related supply chains; high interest rates continue to suppress real estate and corporate financing, compounded by the resumption of student loan repayments and weakening external demand, the economy may gradually shift from strong growth to moderate expansion. $BTC
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