This really puts 2025 post-TGE performance into perspective.
Around 35 projects launched at valuations above $1B this year.
Not one of them is in the green today.
Average performance
≈ -81%
That’s not a few bad apples
That’s a pattern
We may still see one or two more >$1B launches this year like Lighter or Sentient AGI, but the backdrop hasn’t changed.
It raises an uncomfortable question
Are these launches meaningfully different from memecoin dynamics
Just wrapped in better branding, suits, and narratives
Because even projects launching at $100M
with “strong fundamentals”
are still down 70–80% shortly after listing
This isn’t just poor timing
It’s structural
High FDVs
Low floats
Weak value capture
And a market with no appetite for dilution
No surprise teams are struggling to clear $100M now
And no surprise users are exhausted
2025 wasn’t just a tough year
It was a brutal reality check for altcoins
