🚨【Alert: The first GDP report after the shutdown is coming today! Will the historical curse repeat?】
🪙 Just confirmed: The first U.S. GDP data after the shutdown is about to be released today! Market nerves are on edge—multiple senior officials warn that "the data may be distorted," and volatility risks are skyrocketing! 📉
⚠️ Historical backtesting reveals a “curse”:
In the past five years, on GDP announcement days under similar circumstances, there has been over a 70% chance that the market will plummet sharply after the data is released! But strangely—after a crash, there is often a violent rebound! Will this time be different?
🎭 A dual game unfolding simultaneously:
1. Crisis of data credibility: Some statistical work was paused during the shutdown, is this GDP still reliable?
2. Political pressure is rising: Trump is closely monitoring the screen—if the data is weak, calls for interest rate cuts will instantly explode on Capitol Hill!
🔥 Today's life-and-death simulation:
· If the data is stronger than expected → Expectations for interest rate cuts cool → Dollar rises, U.S. stocks come under pressure
· If the data is weaker than expected → Probability of policy easing skyrockets → Gold, government bonds may experience a pulse行情
· Most dangerous scenario: Data distortion + market misreading → Double killing volatility for bulls and bears!
📌 Emergency plan:
1️⃣ Beware of the “first wave of volatility” at the moment the data is released (often the most intense)
2️⃣ Watch if the market reverses half an hour later
3️⃣ Recommendation to temporarily retain gold/dollar hedge positions
4️⃣ Avoid market order trading within 5 minutes before data release
💬 Wall Street undercurrents:
Some institutions have privately warned that "tonight's volatility may break the annual peak," and some high-frequency systems have activated extreme market protection modes. In the retail trading hall, traders are repeatedly checking their stop-loss orders...
👇 Quick review question:
Do you think this GDP is a “shock” or a “surprise”? How much volatility is your account prepared to withstand tonight?
Looking forward to your predictions in the comments!
(Data release time: 21:30 Beijing time | Volatility warning period: 21:30-22:30)
