K33 Research forecasts that 2025 will see a significant divergence between the fundamentals and cryptocurrency prices: despite the U.S. establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves and friendly policy signals, Bitcoin still underperforms compared to U.S. stocks and gold due to large-scale profit-taking by early holders and changes in market structure.
The 2025 Year-End Review report states that Bitcoin volatility is at record lows but price movements do not reflect the legal and policy positives, setting the stage for a repricing cycle as early selling pressure weakens.
MAIN CONTENT
2025: Bitcoin underperformed U.S. stocks and gold despite several policy boosts.
2026: K33 Research leans bullish, expecting Bitcoin to outperform stock indices and gold.
Drivers for 2026: legalization, institutional capital flows, 401(k), and supply held for over 2 years recovering.
2025: Strong fundamentals but price misalignment
Bitcoin is rated as underperforming compared to mainstream assets like U.S. stocks and gold, despite strategic Bitcoin reserves in the U.S. and shifts in management direction.
K33 Research notes supporting factors including: the Trump administration establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves; an executive order promoting the integration of digital assets into 401(k) applications; and regulatory shifts due to leadership changes at the SEC. However, prices have not surged accordingly.
The main reason cited is large profit-taking from early holders (OGs) and adjustments in market structure. Notably, this development occurs against the backdrop of Bitcoin volatility at record lows, highlighting the divergence between fundamentals and price performance.
2026: Expectations of a reversal due to legal, macroeconomic, and institutional capital flows
K33 Research maintains a bullish outlook for 2026, forecasting Bitcoin will surpass stock indices and gold as benefits from legal victories overshadow capital allocation impacts.
Macroeconomics: this organization expects Trump to appoint a dovish Fed Chair, shifting from tightening to expansionary policy, creating an ample environment favorable for scarce assets like Bitcoin. Legal: The Clarity Act is expected to be passed in Q1/2026; broader cryptocurrency legislation is also expected to be signed early in the year.
Organizations and products: Morgan Stanley expects to allow advisors to allocate 0-4% of portfolios to Bitcoin ETF for clients starting 01/01/2026; E*Trade is expected to launch retail cryptocurrency trading in the first half of 2026. ETF flows: net inflows in 2026 are forecasted to exceed 2025. Companies: MicroStrategy is forecasted not to sell Bitcoin; total net absorption of Bitcoin through corporate finance across the industry is around 150,000 BTC, down 330,000 BTC compared to the same period. Supply: the amount of Bitcoin held for over 2 years is forecasted to end its decline, recovering above 12.16 million BTC by year-end; early selling pressure decreases and shifts to net buying demand. With expanded 401(k), purchasing potential may increase according to allocation levels of 1% to 5%.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/k33-du-bao-bitcoin-vuot-vang-chung-khoan-2026/
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