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GOAT10X
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$ALPINE
bounced strong from the base and followed through.
Next TP: 0.66–0.67
SL: 0.565
As long as price holds above 0.60, momentum stays bullish.
ALPINEUSDT
Perp
0.6061
+1.95%
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$BTC Instead of talking about a Santa Rally, the focus should be more on the possibility of a Grinch Rally. The data from Bitcoin's price action during the last four years shows a consistent, high-probability flush that plays out between December 25th and the yearly close. The window from December 25th to the 31st is a notorious "kill zone" for late longs. Once institutional liquidity thins out for the holidays, the distribution phase takes over, and the market tends to flush violently into the yearly close. Here is the track record for this period from the last 4 years: 2021 (-10.11%): A brutal rejection from the highs that turned the holiday into a massive liquidation event. 2022 (-1.87%): A low-volatility bleed into the year-end, confirming the bear market floor. 2023 (-3.47%): A steady distribution phase that completed exactly on the 31st of December. 2024 (-8.32%): A violent reversal from the $100k milestone as the market used the holiday to wipe out over-leveraged breakout buyers. With price currently hovering around $87,K, we are entering that exact same window of risk in 48 hours. If the last 4 years are anything to go by, the probability remains heavily skewed toward another -5% to -10% flush before the New Year.
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