This project is a leading public blockchain and its native asset Ethereum that is driving the smart contract revolution. It has evolved from an 'experimental network' to a global infrastructure relied upon by financial institutions, developers, and AI systems worldwide. ETH is not only the 'fuel' of this network but also carries the grand narrative of becoming a core value storage asset in the digital age.
Trading Setup
Key Buy Zone: $2700.00 - $3100.00
Goal 1: $4300.00 (Expert average target by the end of 2025)
Goal 2: $6000.00
Goal 3: $10000.00 (Long-term Optimistic Outlook)
Stop Loss: Below $2500.00
Core Bullish Logic
1. Spot ETF siphoning and institutional inflection point: The Ethereum spot ETF shows astonishing capital attraction in 2025, with a net inflow of 97.2 billion USD throughout the year, even surpassing Bitcoin ETF at certain stages. The products from giants like BlackRock dominate, elevating their holdings from 'satellite assets' to 'core allocations', creating unprecedented structural demand. Companies focused on increasing ETH holdings collectively purchased 4.8 million ETH in 2025, accounting for 4% of the supply, forming a continuous and stable buying pressure.
2. Technological revolution and global settlement layer status: The Pectra and Fusaka hard forks in 2025 completed the transformation from 'experimental network' to 'global infrastructure'. The upgrade significantly increased network capacity and reduced costs, while U.S. regulators clarified that 'Ethereum is not a security', and provided a framework for stablecoins through the (GENIUS Act), clearing key obstacles. Ethereum has become the absolute main battleground for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), hosting over 24 billion USD of related assets.
3. Deflationary assets and ecological value capture: Despite facing competition from Layer 2, the Ethereum ecosystem continues to experience explosive growth. Its total value locked (TVL) in DeFi reached 939 billion USD in 2025, growing by 71% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the token burn mechanism and staking yields (annualized around 4.5%) generated by network activity provide it with dual value support as a 'yield-bearing asset' and deflationary property.
Core Risk Alert
1. Dependence on 'Bitcoin leverage' and competitive squeeze: Some believe that the currency premium of ETH is essentially a 'leveraged expression' of Bitcoin's monetary narrative, with a high correlation to Bitcoin's price (the beta coefficient once exceeded 1.8), and its independence is still questioned. Meanwhile, competitors like Solana exert strong pressure on its market share in transaction fees, causing Ethereum's share to slip to fourth among public chains.
2. Value capture and ecological complexity of Layer 2: The maturity of Layer 2 has led to the migration of activities and value off-chain while expanding the ecosystem. Some analyses suggest this may slow the growth of mainnet GDP and fee income, similar to experiencing a 'midlife crisis'. Additionally, complex financial Lego such as restaking has introduced new systemic risks.
3. Regulatory and technical execution risks: Although current regulations are clear, the approval for innovative products like staking ETFs remains uncertain and could become a short-term black swan. In the long run, Ethereum's immense success also brings underlying technical challenges such as 'state inflation', which may affect the network's decentralization and accessibility.
Market Simulation
If prices can hold above the psychological threshold of $3000 and are accompanied by Bitcoin's bull market driving its high beta attributes, continued inflow of ETF funds, or breakthrough developments in the RWA sector, there is potential to challenge new heights of $4300 or even $6000, based on its fundamentals and institutional re-evaluation.
Conversely, if the cryptocurrency market as a whole enters a deep correction, Layer 2 competition further erodes its fundamental value, or unexpected regulatory pressures arise, prices may retreat to test the key support range of $2700-$2500. Its trend will largely depend on the macro trend of Bitcoin.