Notes on deep-sea treasure hunting by a female analyst
1. How 'outrageous' is this mine?
Upon seeing the news of 3,900 tons of gold being dug up from the seabed of Laizhou Bay, my first reaction was: this is enough to keep global gold miners awake for three years!
Magnitude crush: the gold reserves of Laizhou city directly account for 26% of the national total, which is equivalent to completely emptying Germany's central bank gold reserves (about 2,400 tons) and still having plenty left over.
Grade kills: the ore grade reaches 4.2 grams/ton, higher than the legendary South African Rand gold mine (3.5 grams/ton), while the global average grade has fallen to 1.5 grams/ton. With the same mining costs, profits double; this is no longer a mine? It's essentially a money printer!
But what shocked me more was the location—mining gold at the bottom of the Bohai Sea is comparable to building a subway under the Forbidden City. Chinese engineers have used TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) to dig 2000 meters to the seabed, with a monthly advance of 648 meters, four times faster than traditional methods. This technological barrier has left European and American mining giants dumbfounded: 'Deep-sea rules will now have to consider China's opinions.'
Second, don't just focus on gold! The strategic chess game behind it is what really excites.
As an analyst who has long tracked the resource market, I maintain a view: the financial attribute of gold is always more lethal than its commodity attribute.
Financial security 'ballast stone':
Currently, the global 'de-dollarization' undercurrents are surging, with central banks around the world frantically stockpiling gold. China's 3900 tons of deep-sea gold completely avoids the dollar settlement system, adding a 'physical firewall' to its foreign exchange reserves.
Think about the U.S. freezing Russia's foreign exchange reserves—gold that is autonomously mined from the seabed is the real hard currency that 'no one can touch.'
The 'nuclear weapon' of pricing power competition:
London and New York currently hold global gold pricing power, but after the Laizhou mine goes into production, its annual output will be 15-20 tons (accounting for 5% of the national total), with costs only 120 yuan/gram, 43% lower than the industry average. Once low-cost production is released, it could completely flatten the global gold price fluctuation range.
In my personal judgment: China will likely take the opportunity to promote a RMB gold pricing system, and the internationalization of the Shanghai Gold Exchange will definitely accelerate.
Third, market impact: don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations.
Although the news has caused a stir, gold prices have fluctuated between 4320-4343 USD in the short term. Why? Because deep-sea mining has a long cycle and will only reach full production by 2026. But smart capital is already positioning itself.
Mining stocks lead the way: for targets like Zhaojin Mining, the gold content per share is 1.92 grams; for every 100 yuan increase in gold price, EPS increases by 0.38 yuan.
Industry chain undercurrents: orders for TBM equipment manufacturers (such as China Railway Equipment) and deep-sea robotics companies will surge, and the marine engineering sector may be the next hot spot.
But a word of caution: don't rush in blindly! The Federal Reserve's policies and U.S. CPI data are still short-term indicators. The real big market will only emerge when the mining progress becomes clearer.
My personal opinion: the 'Chinese era' of gold has just begun.
Regarding the traditional gold market: Laizhou mine is like a catfish, forcing global players to reassess the strategic value of marine resources. In the next decade, deep-sea mining technology may be worth more than gold itself.
For ordinary people: if you want to allocate gold assets, you might pay attention to domestic gold ETFs or mining stocks, which are more flexible than physical gold bars; but remember: resource stocks are highly volatile, so position management is essential.
Lastly, a heart-wrenching statement: 3900 tons of gold sounds impressive, but China's real treasure is not gold, but the technology system of 'stealing resources from the deep sea.' While others are still focused on land grades, we have already turned to the ocean for the future—this new pattern has won.
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