according to the materials from the site - ETHNews
Monero (XMR) faced new downward pressure after a sharp intraday sell-off pushed the price back to the $438–$440 range.
Despite the bullish long-term structure reflected in the moving averages, the short-term dynamics have clearly weakened, and the focus is on whether buyers can stabilize the price or if further decline will occur.
At the time of writing, XMR is trading around $438, which is approximately 7% lower than the previous day. Volatility remains elevated at 5.60%, confirming aggressive participation during the drop. Sentiment is still described as bullish, but this contrasts with the visible price behavior, suggesting that sentiment may lag behind actual market conditions.
The 14-day RSI around 64.5 remains technically neutral, indicating that the drop has not yet reached oversold conditions. This leaves room for continuation before momentum is stretched.
The 1-hour chart shows a clear loss of short-term structure. After several failed attempts to hold above the mid-460s, the price flipped and accelerated sharply, leading to a sequence of lower highs and expanding red candles.
The most notable feature is the steep cascade from the $455–$460 zone, where previous bounces consistently failed. Once this zone broke, the downward momentum quickly increased, with minimal buying response until the price approached the $435–$440 range.
If buyers fail to defend the $435–$440 zone, the lack of nearby structural support could allow the price to drift lower towards the low $420s without much friction. The absence of oversold RSI conditions increases this risk.
On the other hand, if XMR holds above current levels and starts to form higher lows on the hourly chart, a corrective bounce to $455–$460 becomes possible. This level remains critical; without a reclaim, any bounce is likely to be sold again.
For momentum to change significantly, the price will need to reclaim this resistance zone with increasing volume, which is not yet visible on the chart.
Despite bullish long-term indicators such as moving averages and projected price metrics, the short-term structure is clearly bearish. Sharp downward moves, weak bounce volume, and repeated failures at prior support all indicate that the market is still in a corrective phase.
As long as XMR either regains $460 or demonstrates clear base behavior near current support, the risk remains tilted towards continued volatility rather than an immediate trend resumption.
