Boxing Day expiration concentrates liquidity, increases volatility, and pressures the price in the short term🥀$BTC 🥀

💇‍♂️Options expiration becomes the main catalyst for the crypto market

Analysts from various firms agree that the expiration of options on Boxing Day (Friday the 26th) has become the main driver of the crypto market in the short term🥀. About 300,000 Bitcoin options contracts — approximately $23.7 billion in notional value — are set to expire, 👻representing more than half of the total open interest in Bitcoin options on Deribit.

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📈 “Record-breaking” expiration, but the market remains orderly

Deribit's commercial director, Jean-David Pequignot, stated that the current expiration is “🗯️record-breaking,” with $28.5 billion in combined BTC and ETH options about to roll — double the volume observed in the same period last year.

Despite the scale, Pequignot emphasized that the market remains “orderly,” with the bitcoin DVOL index close to 45, indicating relatively contained implied volatility in light of the event's size.

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🔻 Traders reduce risk instead of rolling positions

QCP Capital noted that participants are closing risk, not rolling positions:

🥀• BTC: open interest in perpetuals fell by about $3 billion overnight

🥀• ETH: approximate reduction of $2 billion

According to QCP, “liquidity is significantly diluting,” which increases the risk of abrupt movements in both directions as market depth decreases.

📌 In such environments, small flows can generate disproportionate fluctuations.

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🧠 Year-end movements tend to be mechanical

Both QCP and Misir highlight that movements during Christmas week often reverse in January, when market participation returns to normal. This suggests that the current fluctuations are more mechanical (derivatives/liquidity) than fundamental.

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✨💛✨ Gold diverges and signals a search for macro hedge

While the crypto market struggles to find direction, gold hit a new record near ✨$4,530✨. Misir pointed out that the divergence indicates a return of demand for macro protection at the year-end amid political uncertainty.

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🏛️ Monetary policy on the radar, but no immediate catalyst

President Donald Trump confirmed that he will announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve chairman by early January.

According to Misir, it is not an immediate catalyst, but it reinforces investors' defensive positioning until there is greater clarity.

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❄️☃️❄️ The crypto market enters the options expiration dominated by technical factors:

• ⏱️ record expiration concentrates attention

• 🔻 reduction in OI indicates deleveraging

• 💧 shallower liquidity raises the risk of a “squeeze”

• 🎄 year-end movements tend to normalize in January

Until liquidity returns and technical noise dissipates, prudence and risk management remain more relevant than directional conviction.