🚨 $BTC $ETH $SUI 4.3% Is the “false prosperity” behind the growth rate? The U.S. economy may face aftershocks from the government shutdown in Q4
As of today (December 23), the GDP report delayed by two months due to the government shutdown has finally been released: the annualized GDP growth for the U.S. in the third quarter is 4.3%, hitting a two-year high! Consumer growth is at 3.5%, and core PCE has risen to 2.9%. The data seems “hot,” but in reality, it is fraught with danger.
🔍 Why is the strong growth possibly an “illusion”?
• “Running ahead” benefits exhausted: The explosive growth in Q3 largely stems from companies’ “defensive stockpiling” before the new tariffs under Trump took effect, as well as consumers' early spending. This “order grabbing” effect has overdrawn future momentum.
• 43 days of shutdown took a heavy toll: The record government shutdown lasting until mid-November is expected to evaporate 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points from Q4 growth. As the Chief Economist of FwdBonds stated, this delayed report is already “old news.”
• No job growth: KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk pointed out that while investment in data centers and AI is strong, the economy is trapped in a “no job growth” vicious cycle.
📈 Market logic and outlook:
Although the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates three times by the end of 2025, inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target. With expectations for AI investment and tax rebates taking over in 2026, the market is currently in a tug-of-war between liquidity and recession expectations.
