In the journey of accumulating experience in the market, we are always seeking deeper insights to understand the movements and sentiments of digital asset holders. For KITE, the crucial question "Do Holders have faith and commitment to the project?" becomes urgent as we delve into on-chain indicators. Recent data from KITE paints a complex yet interesting picture of holder confidence: a clear struggle between the existing market adjustment pressure and persistent signals indicating that a portion of investors still holds expectations for the project's potential.
KITE is currently trading around 0.08933 USD, with short-term price fluctuations indicating a period of endurance testing. Observing the 1-hour price chart, we see KITE has made significant recovery efforts from the 0.088 USD level to the 0.093 USD threshold before slightly adjusting to the current level. This is a fairly common price behavior in markets seeking a new balance point. The trading volume in 24 hours reached 11.11 million USD, with the 9-period moving average volume at 329.272K. This indicates that market participation is still present, with spikes in volume accompanying both upward and downward price movements. This is evidence of continuous position changes between buyers and sellers, reflecting a vibrant market action.
However, when looking at the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) – an important measure reflecting the net difference between active buying and selling volume in the market – we observe significant pressure. The CVD in the futures market has decreased from about -18.521 million USD to -18.731 million USD. Similarly, the CVD in the spot market also shows a downward trend, from -9.774 million USD to -10.085 million USD. The decline of CVD, both in futures and spot, implies that the volume of sales matched at the Bid price is exceeding the volume of purchases matched at the Ask price. In other words, the active sellers are dominating trades, creating downward pressure on the price of KITE. This could stem from some short-term investors taking profits or rebalancing their portfolios, a completely normal action in a volatile market context. The fact that the Aggregated Futures Bid & Ask Delta index frequently displays red (negative) columns further reinforces the view of strong active selling pressure from derivative traders. This is not a signal of panic, but a market condition indicating caution and position adjustments.
On the other hand, to gain a better understanding of holders' confidence, we need to examine the indicators that embody expectations. Open Interest (OI), representing the total number of open derivative contracts in the market, is maintaining at a quite high level and shows signs of consolidating around 233.176 million USD. In fact, this indicator reached 233.525 million USD at one point before experiencing a slight adjustment. High OI when prices are stable or slightly declining often indicates an increase in the number of new positions opened, demonstrating that market interest in KITE is still very high. It may be a combination of both long and short positions, but maintaining at a high level suggests that traders are still actively participating and not fully withdrawing.
Even more noteworthy is the Funding Rate, currently at a positive level of about 0.0051 (or 0.0050% in overview). A positive Funding Rate means that long position holders (betting on price increases) are paying fees to short position holders (betting on price decreases). This is often a sign of a prevailing optimistic sentiment in the futures market, where long positions are willing to incur costs to maintain their positions, believing that prices will rise in the future. This willingness to pay fees from long positions, even when prices are under adjustment pressure and CVD is declining, is strong evidence that a portion of holders still maintains confidence and expectations for KITE's recovery. They are not only holding but also willing to bear costs to continue betting on the future, showing significant commitment.
In summary, the picture of KITE holder confidence becomes clearer: it is not a uniform belief or a complete loss of faith, but a strong internal struggle. On one hand, the active selling pressure in the short term, reflected through decreasing CVD and negative Aggregated Futures Bid & Ask Delta, indicates that a portion of investors are taking profits or adjusting positions. On the other hand, the persistence of high Open Interest along with a positive Funding Rate is evidence that another group of holders remains steadfast with a long-term vision, ready to accumulate and bet on the recovery potential of the project. They view these adjustments as opportunities, not reasons to abandon ship.
In this context, we can envision two potential scenarios. The first scenario is if selling pressure continues to dominate and long position holders lose patience, KITE may undergo a deeper adjustment phase. The second scenario, and also what believers are hoping for, is that the current selling pressure will be absorbed by resilient buyers, and the stability of Open Interest along with a positive Funding Rate will create a solid foundation for a stronger recovery when the overall market optimism returns.
For an investor accumulating experience, this is a valuable lesson on the importance of multi-dimensional analysis. Not only looking at price, but also understanding the story behind the on-chain numbers. The market is never simple, and the trust of holders is the same; it is a continuous flow of expectations and reality.
Entering orders is easy, holding orders is hard.
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This is not an investment advice. Please do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
