The Christmas market is a sugar-coated shell — Today, the rebound of BTC at 87700 is the 'nested gift box' institutions give to retail investors.
First, let's look at the current order book: BTC is currently stuck at 87700, swaying, that small bullish candle on the 4-hour chart looks like it's about to touch 90000, but if you flip through today's news, you'll know — this is a drama performed by the institutions. Last night, the ETF saw a net outflow of 140 million, Fidelity and Grayscale led the withdrawal, and there are still 90,000 BTC being dumped onto exchanges by long-term holders, which means 'big funds are secretly selling, but calling retail investors to take over the positions.'
Reanalyzing this K-line: The middle track of the Bollinger Bands is pressing down on the price, the RSI has just turned up but the MACD green bars haven't finished shrinking, a typical 'false rebound and true offloading'. Yesterday a fan said they chased a long position at 88500, and I directly told them to cut their position in half — this is exactly the same tactic as last week when 'Asia-Europe pushed to 90000, and the US market smashed back to 88000', the institutions are just taking advantage of retail investors' psychology of wanting to earn a 'Christmas red envelope', pulling up a wave to let you chase, then smashing the market to harvest.
Let me tell you a case: before Christmas in 2021, BTC surged to 58000, and at that time institutions also shouted 'the Christmas gathering will break 60000', but on the holiday itself it directly crashed to 42000, trapping half of the retail investors who chased the rise. The current situation is even harsher: the options market has 24 billion in positions waiting for settlement, with 85000 puts and 100000 calls working against each other, and institutions pushing to 90000 is just to make the call options explode, this is called 'double kill for bulls and bears'.
My personal judgment is: today BTC is in a 'fluctuating monkey market of 86000-90000'. Why? The trading volume on exchanges has decreased, but ETFs are withdrawing funds, and miners' hash rate has dropped by 4% (according to VanEck's data, this is a bottom signal), but institutions are deleveraging by the end of the year - equivalent to 'bulls have a trump card, bears have a sickle', no one dares to truly push it up. This morning I let the community place a short position at 88000, and now it has already gained 300 points; it’s not my accuracy, it’s the institutions' routine that hasn’t changed: push up, trick into chasing, then smash and leave.
Don't believe the nonsense of 'charging to 90000 tonight' - the long-short ratio is 1.12, looking at the bulls being dominant, but the open contracts have decreased by 50%, which means 'no one truly dares to heavily invest'. If we really want to push to 90000, we need to first stabilize at 88500, and there must be net inflows from ETFs to support it, but today the net outflow is still expanding, this rebound is just 'a pie drawn by institutions'.
Finally, let me ring the alarm for you: tonight on Christmas Eve, liquidity is poor, and institutions are likely to 'pull the tail end to entice more purchases', but this is 'the last chance to escape'. I dare to bet a pack of spicy strips that BTC will definitely retrace to 86000 tomorrow - those who trust me should reduce their positions now, don’t wait until you are stuck to ask 'how does the master resolve the situation?'.
You tell me, how many retail investors trying to make quick money can be trapped in this 'Christmas entrapment'?
Twelve years in the financial field, the exclusive secrets of pioneers in the cryptocurrency world: insight into the market, proceed steadily, pay attention to how the master teaches you to steadily increase value, risks and opportunities coexist in investment, blind operations are a big taboo in the cryptocurrency world!
