👀Continuing with the narrative of "QE", HUGE debt maturity in 2026 and rate cuts:

What similarities do we have with the 2001 and 2008 CRASH⁉️

🗣Ray Dalio: "I fear a TOTAL COLLAPSE of the ENTIRE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM is approaching"

📈Let's look at the graphs about what happened on those occasions:

👉In January 2001, the RATE CUTS began

🔻Since then, the SP500 fell by 43%

🔻The reason: The Dot Com BUBBLE with ghost companies that had no profits

👉In September 2007, the RATE CUTS began

🔻Since then, the SP500 has fallen by 55%

🔻The reason: The REAL ESTATE BUBBLE, fueled by high-risk mortgages incorrectly rated as safe by rating agencies, which caused a crisis when defaults surged

💸The first QE in history started here, in November 2008 (they bought toxic bonds related to mortgages)

▪️On November 25, 2008, the Fed announced the purchase of up to 600 billion dollars in mortgage bonds

▪️Purchases by the FED started in January 2009 and since then, the SP500 FELL by 27% in 63 days

▪️In light of the persistence of the crisis and recession, on March 18, 2009, the Fed announced a larger expansion:

-Increased MBS (mortgage-backed securities) purchases by an additional 750 billion

-Increased purchases of agency debt by about 75 billion additional

-And for the first time, included the purchase of 300 billion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds to lower the rate

🟢This expansion of March 2009 was key because it not only increased the volume but also directly incorporated Treasuries (long-term bonds), affecting long-term interest rates more broadly

🟢In response to this expansion, the market began to rise sharply

What similarity can we find today with this⁉️

👉That today, in light of the liquidity crisis in the repo market (institutions asking the FED for money as an emergency), the FED ended QT and began buying bonds

👉But this bond purchase:

👀It's short-term bonds (T-Bills) (long-term bond purchases are better because they lower the yield of long-term bonds and reduce long-term financing costs for companies)

👀It's only $40B a month

👀In the same way that in 2008 the FED started the BOND PURCHASE and the market FELL until an INCREASE in those purchases was announced...

Will we see a drop in the SP500 until an EXPANSION of these purchases by the FED is announced⁉️

👉The truth is that currently the situation is complicated:

🔻Default levels in the U.S. are near highs

🔻Record levels of company bankruptcies

🔻Layoffs are increasing and the labor market is weak

🔻Liquidity problems

🗣@VersanAljarrah: "Once something breaks, that's when true QE will begin"

▫️Additionally, it should be noted that in 2026 nearly $10T of debt matures...

▫️To pay that debt, they will issue more debt (bonds) which degrades confidence in the dollar...

▫️And since it's so much, it will be difficult to find buyers

▫️It's no coincidence the FED and the Treasury have already started to repurchase debt....

▫️It's no coincidence they will modify the eSLR rule starting in January to allow banks to buy more bonds

▫️It's no coincidence they push for the ADOPTION of stablecoins

📍The financial system is more fragile than many believe and that's why IT IS CHANGING