BTC cycle enters a critical late phase? If the historical rhythm holds, it may have already run through most of the bear market.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s past cycles, you’ll notice a fairly consistent pattern: after falling from the peak, the market enters the bear-market adjustment phase, which typically takes about a year before the cycle bottom is truly reached.
If we apply this cycle to the current one, it has probably already gone through close to 9 months—meaning, time-wise, it may have completed about three-quarters of the adjustment process.
Of course, this isn’t an exact formula. Crypto markets never follow the script strictly; history can only be used as reference and can’t be treated as a guaranteed path. So the bottom may not appear within the next three months.
But if the larger-cycle structure remains intact, an important signal is this: the market may be gradually transitioning from the “decline main phase” into the “late-range consolidation phase.”
In one sentence: it may not be bottoming out immediately, but from a time perspective, Bitcoin may already be in the latter half of the bear market. What comes next will be more about validating the bottom rather than telling a brand-new decline story.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s past cycles, you’ll notice a fairly consistent pattern: after falling from the peak, the market enters the bear-market adjustment phase, which typically takes about a year before the cycle bottom is truly reached.
If we apply this cycle to the current one, it has probably already gone through close to 9 months—meaning, time-wise, it may have completed about three-quarters of the adjustment process.
Of course, this isn’t an exact formula. Crypto markets never follow the script strictly; history can only be used as reference and can’t be treated as a guaranteed path. So the bottom may not appear within the next three months.
But if the larger-cycle structure remains intact, an important signal is this: the market may be gradually transitioning from the “decline main phase” into the “late-range consolidation phase.”
In one sentence: it may not be bottoming out immediately, but from a time perspective, Bitcoin may already be in the latter half of the bear market. What comes next will be more about validating the bottom rather than telling a brand-new decline story.