Inflation adjustments in the personal consumption expenditures index have raised inflation expectations for September 2025 to 2.8%.
The price of Bitcoin is still about 30% lower than its all-time high.
Gold and silver continue to hit new record levels.
Both metals are trading at much higher prices than long-term averages.
CryptoQuant has confirmed the importance of updated data for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation index for July, August, and September 2025. The new figures indicate an increase in inflation, with the PCE index for September at 2.8% year-over-year, the highest level since April 2024. This change raises surprises in the speed of monetary easing and forces markets to reassess risk positions.
Bitcoin is still far from its peak
$BTC is still trading at about a third of its all-time high of $123,000, unable to recover while other asset classes gain momentum. Continued inflation pressures weaken the argument for significant interest rate cuts, which have proven beneficial for Bitcoin rallies. Data indicates that there are unfavorable macroeconomic conditions for speculative assets in the short term.
In contrast, gold and silver continue to hit new record levels. Gold has risen by about 70% annually compared to previous years to reach $4,500, while silver has climbed over 134% to $69 an ounce. According to CryptoQuant charts, gold is trading 25% above its 200-day moving average, and silver is 45% above the same indicator. These extended levels reflect the last time markets saw a significant rotation of capital towards fixed assets during the liquidity surge associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Traditional markets refuse to break
Moreover, traditional risk markets remain strong despite rising inflation. The S&P 500 is still only 1% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq is trading about 3% off its peak. The same price movements indicate that investors remain optimistic about profit growth and liquidity despite increasing inflation.
Among the notable developments, it is worth mentioning the change in correlation between $BTC and other assets. BTC has become negatively correlated with gold since July, and since August it has decoupled from the Nasdaq. This decoupling is a sign that Bitcoin is no longer a risky asset or a hedge, and it is prone to losses during macroeconomic shifts.
Future PCE data reflections
$BTC may underperform compared to safe havens and stocks unless there is a real decline in inflation in the coming periods. A less aggressive PCE movement could revive hopes for Federal Reserve easing and give Bitcoin a second boost. Until then, macroeconomic pressures remain one of the dominant forces in the market.
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