New Year is around the corner, and the main question in the air is: will we see a classic 'altcoin season' in 2026, when the entire market soars against the backdrop of Bitcoin's growth? To put it bluntly, the forecasts are disappointing.
Forecast one: liquidity will become elitist
According to Jeff Kuo, the chief analyst at CoinEx, retail investors waiting for a general rally in 2026 will have a tough time. He states outright: there will be no traditional altcoin season.
Instead, liquidity will be extremely selective and will concentrate in 'blue chips' — proven crypto assets with real utility. Everything else may be overlooked. Ko considers the basic scenario to be Bitcoin rising to $180,000 by 2026.
Second forecast: a protracted winter and a distant peak
But there is also a much more pessimistic view. Experienced trader Peter Brandt predicts a prolonged bear market. He notes that the current market cycle is not yet over.
According to his model, the next Bitcoin peak may only occur by September 2029. Before that, we might face a correction to $25,000 — if the historical model of an 80% drop after parabolic growth repeats.
What disrupted the usual course of events?
These grim forecasts are fueled by the anomaly at the end of 2025. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the strongest for Bitcoin. However, this year BTC showed a decline of more than 22%, becoming the second worst Q4 in history.
Some analysts see this as a positive signal: the market has rid itself of weak hands and excessive risk, which in the past created a foundation for subsequent strengthening. However, there are no guarantees that growth will start immediately in 2026.
Result: what to prepare for?
Expectations for 2026 cast doubt on the old truth that 'a rising tide lifts all boats.' Instead, we may face a market where:
Only the largest and most useful assets will win.
Liquidity is not diluted across the market, but concentrated in a narrow circle.
Maximum selectivity and patience are required.
It seems that the strategy of 'buy any altcoin and wait' may not work in 2026. The time of random wins is over.
What do you think, whose forecast will turn out to be correct — the optimistic scenario of selective growth or the pessimistic scenario of a protracted winter? And how do you plan to act under these conditions?
#альткоины #bitcoin #BTC #Binance
