Just did an overall analysis, very strange!
Nasdaq at 23500, the previous high was at 24000, about to break the previous high and create a historical peak, but Bitcoin just can't move, even reaching 9 is very difficult. When the Nasdaq reached a new high before, Bitcoin was above 120,000, and the US stock market was rising together; it has been a long time since Bitcoin did not follow the US stock market.
Looking at gold, it has almost reached 4500 recently, also aiming for a new high. I have to say that the interest rate cuts have indeed provided necessary liquidity, but this liquidity has not flowed into the crypto space.
Bitcoin's recent sharp decline was due to whales offloading and switching to Ethereum. Additionally, previous Chinese policies have led to a series of capital outflows, causing USDT to start falling.
I have recently started paying attention to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has been confronting Japan. The main goal is to anticipate whether there will be further friction, which will inevitably lead to continued declines.
Although I have always maintained the view that Bitcoin has not yet reached its drop point, I still hold a portion of my position because I know I might be wrong in my predictions.
The outflow of Bitcoin's ETF has decreased from 150 billion to 120 billion. Now, we need to wait for a moment when the funds from gold and the US stock market, especially gold, flow back into the crypto space, particularly Bitcoin. It seems that altcoins are almost drained.
In fact, I do not think that future AI and RWA or stock tokenization will bring much liquidity to the crypto space. After all, it is just changing the form of bonds. It's like using paper money in the past and now using mobile payments for convenience; those who profit are the technology providers, which are the public chains, while other tracks are basically manipulated by big players to raise prices and harvest retail investors, following the narrative.
Recently, Bitcoin's trend has been quite magical. The best strategy is to maintain a portion of the position while waiting, regardless of whether there is a significant decline or increase early next year, so as not to miss out.
