The latest market pricing data shows that traders are becoming cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path expectations for early next year. The market currently estimates that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at the monetary policy meeting in January next year is only 13.3%, while there is a high probability of 86.7% that the current interest rate level will remain unchanged.

Looking ahead to March next year, the market expectations show more changes. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points has risen to 40.7%, becoming a scenario worth noting; at the same time, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged still dominates, at 54.4%. In addition, the market believes that the likelihood of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is low, with a probability of about 5%.

Overall, this data reflects that the market generally believes the Federal Reserve will maintain policy patience in the first quarter of next year, and the possibility of an immediate rate cut is low, with rates more likely to remain high for an extended period. However, as time progresses to March, expectations for loosening policies have warmed, indicating that the market is weighing economic data against the timing of policy shifts. The overall expectations highlight that the outlook for monetary policy remains uncertain. #美联储何时降息？