Dogecoin (DOGE) is at a critical juncture that will determine its short-term direction. The current trading price of approximately $0.13 is nearing the strong technical support zone formed by the convergence of macro indicators at $0.138.
📍 Key Price Level: $0.138
$0.138 is the current 'lifeline' that requires the most attention. It is not only an important 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, but it also coincides with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), forming a strong boundary between bulls and bears.
⚠️ Market Warning and Outlook
To determine whether the trend has truly reversed, it is necessary to observe whether the closing prices at the three-day or weekly level can consistently remain above $0.138, rather than just the short-term fluctuations within the day. If this cannot be achieved, the risk of a decline in Dogecoin will increase.
📊 Historical Patterns and Decision Area
Key Decision Zone: Consider the range of $0.127 to $0.143 as the 'decision area' that determines the long-term trend.
Historical Patterns: Historically, when the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 40, if the price can maintain within this decision zone, Dogecoin has experienced five significant rebounds.
Core Signal: Therefore, whether the price can stay within this range and whether the weekly RSI will effectively fall below 40 become the key technical signals for judging whether the subsequent trend is a continuation of the rebound or a shift towards a long-term bearish outlook.
