$MERL This trend has actually stopped hiding much, and I tend to short.

The information from the recent candlestick chart is very direct: as soon as it goes up, there are people waiting to sell.

The position at 0.5 has been tested more than once.

Every time it gets close, there is an increase in volume, and then it is quickly pushed down.

It feels less like a near miss and more like someone has already positioned themselves to take away liquidity.

The volume doesn't look quite right either.

There is volume when it surges, but it can't hold;

when it drops back, it actually moves more smoothly, indicating that the funds are not in a hurry to push the price up.

In this structure, it's hard to expect it to create an independent market trend on its own.

Especially with the broader market, BTC and ETH are both in correction, making it harder for small and mid-cap stocks.

So from a trading perspective,

it now looks more like a rebound providing positioning, rather than going down to pick up longs.

I will still pay attention to the old positions.

The 0.4–0.5 range has fierce competition; once the rebound starts to see a decrease in volume and the candlestick pattern becomes hesitant, caution is warranted.

In this kind of formation, chasing longs is not cost-effective, and it is more suitable to slowly test a bearish approach.

Of course, as long as the price can effectively stay above 0.5 and is strong enough, the above judgment will be invalidated, no need to get tangled up, but looking at the recent trends, a sufficiently strong bullish event should not occur.

For the downside, there’s no need to think too far ahead,

positions like 0.42 and 0.39 are enough for a round of short-term speculation.

Regarding the timing, it’s not very friendly either.

The unlock in mid to late December is on the way; even if it’s not concentrated selling, the expectation itself will suppress the height of the rebound.

Buying will slow down, while selling will be more patient.

Additionally, there are still quite a few low-cost chips in the market,

this type of capital generally does not chase up, but prefers to wait for rebounds to slowly manage their exit.

So overall, looking at it,

at this stage,

going long requires many prerequisites,

while going short only requires the market to continue being "not that strong".

Although the market won't go straight up or down,

the current rhythm seems more like it's creating opportunities for bears, rather than paving the way for bulls.