I am Qi He. I saw the news about the US stock market opening flat tonight, and then I looked at the “barometer” of the crypto circle, and it was all green with losses! BitMine led the decline with a drop of 3.4%, which is not a good signal. Let's take a look at the BTC that we are most concerned about; the 4-hour chart shows that the market is indeed slipping down. Many people are asking: Qi He, is it going to give up tonight, dropping to 88500 or even 86800? Or can it make a comeback to hit 90500?
First, let me state my clear view: tonight, I am more inclined to think it will first test downwards, to test the key level of 88500, or even look for support around 86800! Why do I dare to say this? Listen to my reasoning.


News aspect: It's blowing cold winds.

Although the US stock market has not fallen, crypto stocks are generally down, indicating that large funds are not optimistic about our circle in the short term, a bit like 'voting with their feet'. It’s like the big players around you are quietly reducing their positions; can market sentiment heat up? In this environment, it's too difficult for BTC to soar alone.


Technical aspect: Showing signs of 'internal friction' fatigue.

The chart is clear: the MACD lines are crossing downwards above the zero axis, which is a classic signal of insufficient upward momentum and the bears starting to gain strength. More importantly, the three words next to it: 'insufficient volume'. Without volume, there is no panic selling in a downturn, and no following buying on a rebound, and the market is like a weak patient, unable to go up or down, only grinding near key positions. The pressure at 90500 is like a mountain, while 88500 and 86800 are two layers of floors. Given its current 'sickly' size, would you say it has the strength to climb the mountain first, or to step on the collapsing floor first?


So what should players do? Remember the trading principles that Qi He told you:
If you are heavily invested: now is not the time to be stubborn. If the market rebounds and approaches the 89500-90000 area, reduce some positions and pull back your fists.
If you are lightly invested and want to get in: control your hands! Don't rush to 'catch the bottom' just because it drops a little. The real opportunity is to wait until it stabilizes at key positions. Pay close attention to whether 88500 can hold; if it quickly breaks below, then look at 86800. Wait until it can no longer drop near the support level, and a small-level reversal signal appears, then consider testing with a small position, and remember to set a stop loss.

Qi He’s personal view:
The probability of a violent surge breaking through 90500 tonight is less than 20%. A greater possibility is that the market will take the pessimistic sentiment of US stock and crypto stocks to conduct a 'stress test' downwards first, with the primary goal being to touch the 88500 threshold guarded by the giant whale. Will this be the end? Not necessarily.
If the purchase of 88500 by the giant whale is the real 'support' force, and can hold up, then a double bottom may form here, with a rebound expected in the future. But if even this fortress is breached, panic selling will pour out, and the next stop will be 86800.


Follow Qi He! I will closely track the dynamics, and once that key signal appears, I will give a clear judgment as soon as possible. Trading is not lonely; follow Qi He, and let’s steady the helm together in the storm!

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