Last night, once the U.S. third-quarter GDP data came out, the numbers looked indeed good, far exceeding expectations. But if anyone expects that the risk market will peak because of this, that's pure nonsense. The market hardly reacted, and the reason is simple: the better the economy, the less reason the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates in 2026.

Now these funds are not looking at whether the data is good or not, but are calculating when Powell will finally give in. No matter how bright the GDP is, to them it’s just a delayed catalyst for interest rate cuts, and the positive news is directly treated as negative.

And then Trump comes out and says we need to trust the Federal Reserve Chairman to cut rates, which frankly is just hot air. He has completely lost control over Powell and can only wait for the term to end.

The reality now is that the Federal Reserve doesn’t listen to the White House, the market doesn’t listen to the data, it only listens to the interest rate path. As long as the timing of interest rate cuts doesn’t get moved up, don’t expect any decent trending market for risk assets.

On the ETF side, they have already emphasized a fact repeatedly: the Christmas rally has begun, but this beginning is not about rising, it’s about people leaving. A portion of funds have already gone on vacation, and the trading volume and liquidity are visibly declining.

When liquidity is poor, the market is left with only two states: first is narrow grinding, and second is specifically poking at you. Tonight is Christmas Eve, and tomorrow night the U.S. stock market will be closed. The trading volume will only be lower; thinking about trend breakthroughs in this environment can only be described as somewhat problematic.

Yesterday, I mentioned in my analysis that every day someone is trying to fool you into believing in a Christmas rally or year-end surge, making it sound very real. What is the reality? The current market is terribly bad, it rises uncomfortably and falls unceremoniously, specifically designed to hit your stop loss.

Just when you chase long, it pokes you. Just when you short, it bounces back to annoy you. This kind of rebound fundamentally only has one word: fake. It’s not that funds are bullish, it’s just short covering combined with the main force controlling the market show. #美联储回购协议计划