Another round of sharp declines, and many people are starting to get restless. Rather than making random guesses, it's better to look at the real data and what the latest trends are saying.
What is behind the large institutions increasing their holdings?
A big piece of news broke yesterday: Trend Research has added 46,000 ETH, bringing their total holdings to nearly 580,000. Even more shocking is that their average purchase price was locked in at $3,208; at the current price, their paper losses have already exceeded $140 million. That's not all, they also leveraged nearly $900 million from lending protocols.
This operation reveals two pieces of information. First, large funds do indeed see the long-term potential of ETH, buying more as prices drop. Second, leveraging is a double-edged sword; if ETH continues to plunge, the risk of liquidation will significantly increase, and market fluctuations may be amplified. Don't be blindly attracted by institutions to buy the dip; they are basically just making long-term allocations. If you really want to play short-term, the strategy is completely different.
The candlestick chart is very clear.
The 4-hour level chart has already broken. The two MACD lines are below the 0 axis, indicating that the downward momentum is strengthening. The resistance at 3100 has long been unable to hold, let alone 3180. Can it hold in the short term? The support at 2900 is shaking, having touched the lower edge of the 2950-2920 range multiple times.
My view is very straightforward: there is a high probability that today will test the support zone of 2900-2880, and once it breaks down, dropping to 2700 wouldn't be surprising. When a rebound occurs, if the MACD is still below the 0 axis, then the rebound is basically just an escape window, don't mistake it for a reversal.
From a technical perspective, the bears still hold an absolute advantage, so don't guess the bottom now. Declines are for gains, and gains will also have adjustments; that's the market rule. Plan ahead, and don't be reactive when the time comes.
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