By the end of 2025, the global market presents a kind of 'contradictory prosperity': strong U.S. economic data, the S&P 500 index hitting new highs, but traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries are also highly sought after, resulting in complex market sentiment.
U.S. stocks
· Market performance: S&P 500 hits a new closing high.
· Core logic: The expectation of a 'soft landing' is warming up, with strong consumer and business spending supporting economic growth.
gold
· Market performance: Spot gold breaks through $4500 per ounce.
· Core logic: Structural concerns behind the data (weak employment, high prices) and geopolitical factors are boosting demand for safe havens.
Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds
· Market performance: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is in focus.
· Core logic: The expansion of fiscal deficits and increased supply of government bonds raises long-term concerns about the dollar's credit and U.S. debt.
Hong Kong stocks/Chinese concept stocks
· Market performance: Hong Kong stocks traded lightly before the holiday, with net buying of Alibaba by southbound funds.
· Core logic: Affected by the holiday, market performance is stable, and funds are undergoing structural allocation.
Cryptocurrency
· Market performance: Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have dropped.
· Core logic: In the face of strong macro uncertainty, funds flow towards more traditional safe-haven assets, highlighting the risk attributes of crypto assets.
🔍 The deep logic behind market performance
The core contradiction in the current market lies in the coexistence of 'strong data' and 'anxious sentiment'.
U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the fastest growth in two years. However, there are cracks behind this 'bright' data:
1. Growth quality is questionable: The growth part is disturbed by policy expectations (e.g., consumers advance spending to avoid potential tariffs), raising doubts about sustainability.
2. Weak labor market: Diverging from high GDP growth, the average number of new jobs per month has significantly declined, and the unemployment rate has risen.
3. Inflationary pressures persist: The core PCE price index remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
4. Declining consumer confidence: Due to concerns over prices, tariffs, and politics, the consumer confidence index has dropped for the fifth consecutive month.
This divergence explains why the market simultaneously favors risk assets (U.S. stocks) and safe-haven assets (gold). Essentially, funds are preparing for two scenarios: betting on an economic 'soft landing' while hedging against risks brought by economic concerns and policy uncertainty.
💎 Summary and outlook
In summary, the current landscape of the global financial market is being reshaped by two main lines:
· Macro main line: The U.S. economy has entered a complex stage of 'high growth, high uncertainty', temporarily rendering the traditional investment clock (Risk-on/Risk-off) ineffective.
· Asset main line: Funds are conducting complex hedging configurations within traditional assets, while emerging high-risk assets like crypto are temporarily categorized as 'risk camp', making them relatively less attractive.
In such an environment, two key nodes can be focused on:
· Policy games: How the Federal Reserve weighs 'suppressing inflation' against 'preventing recession'; its policy path will be the core macro variable in 2026.
· Sentiment shift: If the U.S. labor market significantly improves or inflation continues to cool, the market's 'risk aversion anxiety' may ease, and fund risk preferences may switch.
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