ATUSD is priced at 0.09129 USD, indicating a notable short-term recovery in the context of overall market volatility. However, when we delve deeper into the on-chain data, we see a much more complex picture, where conflicting signals are strongly tugging against each other. This is not a time for rash decisions, but a moment requiring clarity and objective analysis to determine whether this asset should be monitored or researched further. The central argument is that ATUSDT is in a tug-of-war between short-term recovery expectations and structural selling pressure, requiring close monitoring.
In the last few hours, the price of ATUSDT has surged from around 0.085 USD to 0.091 USD, bringing a positive sentiment to those monitoring. The trading volume in one hour reached 496.889K, and notably, the 7-day trading volume has increased by 7.79%. This suggests a re-engagement of traders, possibly due to closing short positions or opening speculative long positions. This is a sign of immediate market momentum, but it needs to be placed in a larger context to assess sustainability.
Despite the short-term price recovery, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) paints a completely different picture. CVD, or the cumulative difference between buying and selling volume, is a strong indicator of actual market pressure. The CVD of futures contracts is at -76.537 million USD and the spot CVD is even deeper at -816.449 million USD, both continuously declining. This indicates that selling pressure remains very large and persistent in both the derivatives and spot markets, reflecting a prolonged bearish trend.
A notable contradiction arises when we look at the Funding Rate, which is currently at 0.0044. The Funding Rate is the fee that long positions pay to shorts or vice versa to balance the market. The fact that this index is positive indicates that those holding long futures positions are still paying fees to those holding short positions. This can be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the recovery still existing among some derivatives traders, or simply as a mechanism of market balancing that is occurring.
However, this interest is not reflected in Open Interest (OI) – the total number of outstanding derivative contracts. OI is currently at 53.592 million USD and is showing a clear downward trend. The decline in Open Interest is often accompanied by positions being closed, possibly due to liquidation, profit-taking, or stop-losses. This indicates that new money is not flowing into the derivatives market strongly, weakening the foundation for any sustained price recovery.
To gain a more comprehensive view, we need to consider the Aggregated Futures Bid & Ask Delta. This index is currently positive at 113.295K, indicating that there is immediate net buying pressure in the futures market. This is a positive signal in the short term, supporting the fact that prices are increasing again. However, it is important to recognize that Bid & Ask Delta only reflects short-term movements and cannot replace the larger picture of cash flow represented by CVD.
When expanding the view on trading volume, we see a stark contrast. While the 7-day volume shows signs of growth, longer time frames such as 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, YTD, and 1 year all show significant declines of over 70%. The lack of liquidity and market interest in the long term is a factor that needs to be seriously considered, as it can reduce the ability to absorb large buy orders and make the asset more susceptible to volatility.
In summary, ATUSDT is in a challenging situation. On one hand, we see resilience from the positive Funding Rate and short-term buying pressure through Futures Bid & Ask Delta, along with a recent price recovery. On the other hand, widespread selling pressure through CVD and the withdrawal of cash flow through decreasing Open Interest, along with a decline in long-term volume, indicate structural issues. This is a battle between short-term momentum and long-term trends opposing each other.
In light of this situation, there are two main scenarios to consider. First, short-term buying pressure may continue to strengthen, leading to a sustainable trend reversal. This scenario requires a significant increase in Open Interest and a reversal of CVD into positive territory. Second, underlying selling pressure may re-establish its position, making the current recovery merely a liquidity trap. Special attention should be paid to the changes in CVD and Open Interest in the upcoming trading sessions.
With clear conflicting signals, ATUSDT is currently better suited for cautious tracking and deeper analysis, rather than hastily committing large capital. The complexity of on-chain indicators requires clear confirmation of the direction of cash flow before making any investment decisions. Understanding the forces driving the market will help us avoid unnecessary risks. When everyone is profitable, the highest risk is present.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
