$BTC $ETH The crash alarm has sounded, do you dare to bottom fish?
The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has surged to 80%, reaching 90% in January, posing a direct threat to the global ¥19 trillion carry trade. If this wave of funds flows back due to interest rate hikes, the crypto market will be the first to be affected, and BTC may repeat the crash triggered by the YCC policy adjustment in December 2022.
Currently, liquidity is already weak before the Christmas holiday, and policy shocks can be amplified. Coupled with the unclear policy during the Federal Reserve's silent period, BTC faces the dual risk of "Japan tightening + the US not easing". BNB is in a worse situation, as on-chain projects have fallen below CZ's buying price, with users continuously leaving. Although the new official may save the market, it is difficult to change the downward trend in the short term.
My personal view is very clear: now is absolutely not a good time to bottom fish; instead, one should tighten risk control. The probability of a rate hike by Japan is here, and the tragedy of 2022 is looming again. The short-term market vulnerability is too high, and blindly rushing in may lead to being trapped.
Position management must come first; don't go All in! Keep enough cash for signals, such as a clear interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan or the market truly stabilizing before taking action. Key time points to watch are the Bank of Japan's December decision and the Federal Reserve's dot plot, as these are important bases for judging trends. The situation with BNB requires even more caution; even if there are market-saving actions, one must look at the actual effects and not be fooled by "expectations".
Remember, carry trade liquidation is usually a short-term impact. After the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in 2024, BTC will reach a new high within three months, but the premise is to survive first, manage the principal well, and then wait for the opportunity to rebound.
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