š“#uslaunchesnewstrikesagainstiran ā Strait of Hormuz, Markets in Turmoil
US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran early July 8 , targeting over 80 sites. CENTCOM confirmed it's a direct response to Iran attacking three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz (~20% of global oil supply).
The trigger sequence: Hours before the strikes, the US Treasury revoked Iran's oil sanctions waiver (issued just 60 days ago). Then Iran hit three civilian-crewed ships. The US called it a "clear violation of the ceasefire" and launched punitive operations that officials say "will not end in the short term."
Market fallout: WTI Crude jumped +2.8% to $72.39 . The Dollar hit week-highs. Asian equities slid. Bitcoin dropped from $64.4K to $63.3K as risk-off hit. This is a stagflationary shock ā oil spikes fuel inflation, limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates despite the weak payrolls report (+57K).
The danger escalator: Strikes land during Trump's NATO summit and Tehran's state funeral for former Supreme Leader Khamenei. Missiles hitting Iran while the country mourns raises the risk of a broader, uncontrollable escalation.
Bottom line: The most significant US-Iran escalation since the war began. Oil at $75+ changes Q3 macro entirely ā and not in favor of risk assets.
Uncertainty from the strait, from Tehran, from every tanker trying to get through.
$BTC $CL #NewHampshireToVoteOn$100MBitcoinBackedBond #SECToProposeCryptoRule #BitcoinFailsToHold$64.4K #BTCSharpeRatioFallsToLowestSince2022
US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran early July 8 , targeting over 80 sites. CENTCOM confirmed it's a direct response to Iran attacking three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz (~20% of global oil supply).
The trigger sequence: Hours before the strikes, the US Treasury revoked Iran's oil sanctions waiver (issued just 60 days ago). Then Iran hit three civilian-crewed ships. The US called it a "clear violation of the ceasefire" and launched punitive operations that officials say "will not end in the short term."
Market fallout: WTI Crude jumped +2.8% to $72.39 . The Dollar hit week-highs. Asian equities slid. Bitcoin dropped from $64.4K to $63.3K as risk-off hit. This is a stagflationary shock ā oil spikes fuel inflation, limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates despite the weak payrolls report (+57K).
The danger escalator: Strikes land during Trump's NATO summit and Tehran's state funeral for former Supreme Leader Khamenei. Missiles hitting Iran while the country mourns raises the risk of a broader, uncontrollable escalation.
Bottom line: The most significant US-Iran escalation since the war began. Oil at $75+ changes Q3 macro entirely ā and not in favor of risk assets.
Uncertainty from the strait, from Tehran, from every tanker trying to get through.
$BTC $CL #NewHampshireToVoteOn$100MBitcoinBackedBond #SECToProposeCryptoRule #BitcoinFailsToHold$64.4K #BTCSharpeRatioFallsToLowestSince2022